铜周报：铜价短期承压运行-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current copper mine supply remains tight, and although demand has slightly improved with the decline in copper prices, there is still significant uncertainty overall considering seasonal trends and the macro - environment. In the short term, due to the implementation of the tariff policy, copper prices are expected to remain under pressure [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply and Demand - The processing fee remains in the negative range. The machine - operating rate of the enameled wire industry rose 1.47 percentage points to 81% week - on - week, and new order volume increased by 4.01 percentage points. It is expected to rise slightly to 81.07% next week. The copper cable enterprise operating rate was 71.52%, up 3.7 week - on - week. The weekly operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises also rose to 67.00%, up 3.26 percentage points week - on - week [4]. 2. Macro - environment - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1, 2025. Before August, copper that can reach the port will continue to flow to the US, and after August, the US demand for imported copper is expected to decrease significantly, making the copper supply in non - US markets more abundant. Last week, LME copper stocks increased by 11,000 tons to 108,700 tons, and COMEX copper stocks increased by 9,200 tons to 209,600 tons [4]. 3. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. The US dollar index continued to rise, and the closing price on Friday was 78,430 yuan/ton, about - 1.6% lower than the previous week. Affected by the tariff policy, the price of LME copper was also under pressure, but the price of CME copper increased by 10% [6].