每周投资策略-20250714

Group 1: China Market Focus - The current "anti-involution" policies may adopt different approaches across various industries, with a focus on supply-side reforms and market mechanisms to encourage balance in supply and demand [10][12][19] - Overseas investors are showing high interest in the Chinese market, with notable attention on companies like Kehua Data and SMIC, although actual capital inflow may take time to materialize [13][15][20] - The upcoming third quarter is expected to see a resurgence in IPOs for technology companies, with AI and military sectors identified as key areas for structural investment opportunities [18][19] Group 2: US Market Focus - Core commodity prices are anticipated to reflect tariff impacts more significantly starting mid-year, with a focus on the performance of leading technology stocks like Nvidia and Meta Platforms [26][32][40] - The Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more dovish stance will depend on economic data fluctuations, particularly in light of inflationary pressures and economic slowdown [28][29][36] - The earnings outlook for US stocks is showing signs of divergence, with technology and telecommunications sectors expected to remain strong despite broader economic challenges [37][40] Group 3: Korea Market Focus - New tariffs are expected to disrupt the economy, with significant implications for capital market reforms initiated by changes in commercial law [44][46] - Consumer confidence is improving, which may support the domestic economy, while export levels have remained robust due to preemptive export activities earlier in the year [46]