碳酸锂周报20250714：仓单持续去化，锂价震荡运行-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 690 tons week-on-week to 18,800 tons. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for 2 months, expected to affect the monthly output by about 1,000 tons. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 6% increase month-on-month and a 41% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons week-on-week to 140,800 tons. The overall inventory remains at a high level. In the medium to long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still significant [5]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased by 2%-3% month-on-month. The energy storage market improved slightly, slightly exceeding market expectations. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. From June 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 1.017 million, a 25% increase year-on-year [5]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [5]. - Strategy: The improvement of macro sentiment, the decline of import data, and the reduction of warehouse receipts drive the market's bullish sentiment. In July, both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the improvement of the fundamentals of lithium carbonate itself is limited. In the short term, the "anti-involution" may still have some support on the emotional side. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. Pay attention to the registration of warehouse receipts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side 5 - Month Lithium Spodumene Import Volume Decreased Slightly Month - on - Month - From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In May, the import volume was 605,000 tons, a 2.9% decrease month-on-month. Imports from Australia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were 371,000 tons, 52,500 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively, with a 24.1% increase, a 29.9% increase, and an 8.2% decrease month-on-month [9]. Lithium Concentrate Price Continued the Rebound Trend - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 2.3% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.8% week-on-week. Overseas mines have a strong sentiment to hold prices. Due to the recovery of lithium salt prices, the procurement enthusiasm of non-integrated lithium salt plants has increased [12]. June Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - In June, SMM's total lithium carbonate production increased by 8% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 11%, 9%, and 7% respectively, while the production from the recycling end decreased by 7% [16]. June Chile's Export of Lithium Carbonate to China Remained at a Low Level - From January to May, China imported 100,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 15.3% increase year-on-year. In June, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 10,200 tons, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. Spot Price Stabilized and Rebounded - This week, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 63,750 yuan/ton, a 2.3% increase week-on-week. The market transaction was relatively dull. Lithium salt plants held prices and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude and mainly made rigid procurement [21]. Demand Side Global New Energy Vehicle Market Started Well - From January to April this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. From January to April, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million, a 23.3% increase year-on-year. From January to May in China, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 5.605 million, a 44.0% increase year-on-year [29][32]. Power Battery Production Maintained a High Growth Rate - In May, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 123.5 GWh, a 4.4% increase month-on-month and a 47.9% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production was 568.1 GWh, a 62.6% increase year-on-year [36]. Domestic Mobile Phone Shipment Increased Slightly Year - on - Year - In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment of China's smartphone market was 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year. From January to December 2024, the production of China's electronic computer整机 in the first quarter was 85.322 million units, a 9.6% increase year-on-year [41]. "Rush to Install" Tide Appeared in Some Provinces in May - From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% and 112.94% increase in power and capacity year-on-year respectively. In May, due to the upcoming implementation of the "Document No. 136", a "rush to install" tide appeared in some provinces [45]. July Downstream Production Schedule Increased Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 2,515 yuan/ton, a 115 yuan/ton decrease from last week. According to research, the downstream production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month [51]. Other Indicators Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Faced Cost Inversion - The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 71,749 yuan/ton, a 2,210 yuan/ton increase week-on-week. Under the current lithium price, these manufacturers have fallen into losses [48]. This Week's Basis Narrowed - This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was -530, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained flat week-on-week at 1,600 yuan/ton [54]. The Price Difference between Contracts Widened - This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure. The price difference between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, increasing by 1,800 yuan compared with last week [57].