盘面整体情绪有所缓和，现货贴水走阔

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - Macro: The number of non - farm payrolls in the US far exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate cut in July declined rapidly. In China, the trade - in policy will continue, and there are calls for anti - involution and supply - side reform, which have a significant impact on the market. The US has introduced foreign tariff policies with a higher proportion than before, but the subsequent uncertainty remains high [6]. - Short - term focus: Pay attention to the impact of the US foreign tariff and China's supply - side reform news on the overall market sentiment. In the industry, domestic demand is gradually entering the off - season, the processing industry's operating rate is declining, and orders are decreasing. The social inventory accumulation rhythm is interrupted, the overall inventory is still low, the aluminum rod inventory is at a high level, and the processing fee is at a low position. The spot discount has widened, and downstream acceptance of high prices is poor. In short, the short - term market is affected by the overall domestic sentiment and the relatively strong operation of alumina, and the price performance is relatively strong, but this sentiment eased last Friday. It is necessary to pay attention to its sustainability. Considering the general acceptance of current high prices by downstream and the widened spot discount, it is expected that the upside space of the market is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the pressure level around 20,800, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies [8]. 3. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary 3.1 Supply - Capacity: In June 2025, China's total alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.56% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 93.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.14% and a month - on - month increase of 3.65 million tons [11]. - Production: In May 2025, China's alumina production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative production this year was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [14]. - Operating rate: In June 2025, China's alumina operating rate was 82.49%, at a relatively high - middle position in history, returning to the same level as last year, with a month - on - month increase of 2.88%. The smelting profit turned from loss to profit, the in - production capacity recovered, and the operating rate increased. According to the seasonal chart, there is still significant upside space, and the supply elasticity is large [17]. - Imports and exports: In May 2025, China's net alumina exports were 142,500 tons, showing a net export pattern for 14 consecutive months, with a significant month - on - month decline. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net alumina exports were 1.003 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.2 Demand - Electrolytic aluminum production: In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative production this year was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [24]. 3.3 Cost - Bauxite price: The price of Guinean bauxite slightly declined. The CIF average price of Guinean bauxite was reported at $73 per ton, a decline of $1 per ton from the previous week. The CIF average price of Australian bauxite was $69 per ton, unchanged from the previous week [27]. - Caustic soda price: The latest price of caustic soda was 3,540 yuan per ton, unchanged on a weekly basis [30]. 3.4 Profit - Industry smelting profit: The current full production cost of alumina is 2,823.9 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 2 yuan per ton. The smelting profit is 322.5 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 22.2 yuan per ton [33]. - Alumina import and export profit: The alumina export profit is 71 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 22 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Inventory - Port inventory: As of July 10, the port inventory of alumina was 79,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from July 3 [39]. 3.6 Supply - demand balance - In May, the supply gap continued. From 2014 - 2023, the annual supply - demand balance sheet of domestic alumina showed that domestic production capacity was gradually in surplus, and the import trend declined significantly. Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to a surplus pattern. Considering the new production capacity, it is expected that the overall trend will still be in surplus in the future. Locally, from April to May this year, affected by seasonal maintenance and smelting losses, enterprises actively reduced production on a large scale, resulting in a short - term local supply gap [42]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary 4.1 Supply - Capacity: In June 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.207 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.58% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5 million tons. The in - production capacity was 44.159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.75% and a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.38, with a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - Production: In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.828 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. The cumulative production this year was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [48]. - Operating rate: In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.68, a year - on - year increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. It is at a relatively high position in history. According to the seasonal chart, the upside space is limited, and the supply elasticity is small [51]. - Imports and exports: In May 2025, China's net electrolytic aluminum imports were 191,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 45,800 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative net electrolytic aluminum imports were 990,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,300 tons. According to the seasonal chart, China's electrolytic aluminum import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - Scrap aluminum price: On July 10, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,115 yuan per ton, a decrease of 25 yuan per ton compared to July 4. The refined - scrap spread was 1,810 yuan per ton on July 10, 2025, a widening of 120 yuan per ton compared to July 4 [58]. - Scrap aluminum imports: In May 2025, China imported 160,000 tons of scrap aluminum, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 857,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, mainly due to a large year - on - year increase in imports in February, and the incremental volume mainly came from Thailand. From the monthly import seasonal chart, the current monthly import volume is increasing year - on - year and has significantly declined month - on - month, approaching the level of the same period in 2024. Subsequently, it may still be affected by tariff policies [63]. 4.2 Demand - Aluminum product production: In May 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% and a month - on - month slight decline of 2,000 tons. The cumulative production this year was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [65]. - Aluminum alloy production: In May 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 117,000 tons. The cumulative production this year was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [68]. 4.3 Cost - Alumina spot price: The domestic alumina spot price has stabilized and slightly rebounded, while the overseas spot price has been relatively stable in the short term [71]. - Pre - baked anode price: The latest price of pre - baked anodes is 5,482.5 yuan per ton, unchanged on a weekly basis [74]. - Auxiliary material price: The latest price of dry - process aluminum fluoride is 9,670 yuan per ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. The latest price of cryolite is 8,520 yuan per ton, unchanged on a weekly basis [77]. 4.4 Profit - Industry smelting profit: The recent electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 16,731 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 120 yuan per ton. Based on the cost calculation results and combined with the aluminum spot price, the overall profit of electrolytic aluminum is 4,149 yuan per ton, a weekly decrease of 110 yuan per ton [80]. - Electrolytic aluminum import profit: Currently, the electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,322 yuan per ton, a weekly slight widening of 12 yuan per ton [83]. 4.5 Inventory - Social inventory: As of July 10, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 465,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons and an in - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The social inventory is still at a low level, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is interrupted [86]. - Aluminum rod inventory: As of July 10, the domestic aluminum rod inventory was 156,800 tons, a weekly increase of 6,600 tons and an in - week decrease of 3,100 tons. The weekly inventory accumulation amplitude has slightly decreased, and the current aluminum rod inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [92]. 4.6 Basis - The spot discount has widened. In the spot market, the price of East China spot aluminum was between 20,590 - 20,840 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 10 yuan per ton. As the off - season deepens, downstream acceptance of high prices has decreased, and the spot discount has widened during the week [95].