Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening. The first round of coke price increase this week is expected to be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract as the spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the coking coal main contract Jm2509 closed at 913.0, up 1.78% from the day - session opening; the coke main contract J2509 closed at 1519.5, up 1.50% from the day - session opening [1] Important Information - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872.72 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.44 million tons; the total inventory of five major steel products was 1339.58 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the consumption of five major steel products was 873.07 million tons, a decrease of 1.4% [1] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.7%. The daily average output of raw coal was 1.918 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons, and the raw coal inventory was 642.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.5 million tons [1] - On July 11, the price of top - charged coke in major production areas such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia increased by up to 95 yuan/ton, and the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke and dry - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton and 75 yuan/ton respectively [1] Market Logic - On Friday night session, both coking coal and coke continued to see significant position - increasing, but the increase was relatively limited. The first round of coke price increase this week will be implemented. With the market news of crude steel production restrictions, downstream finished products are favorable, steel mills have good profits, and there are more bottom - fishing behaviors by traders, so the spot price of coking coal continues to rise. In the short term, there is still an expectation of 1 - 2 rounds of coke price increases, and both coking coal and coke will continue to run bullishly [1] Trading Strategy - The spread between near - and far - month contracts is shrinking. It is not recommended to short the near - month contract. Positive arbitrage can be tried, and a unilateral position is advised to wait and see [1]
格林大华期货双焦早盘提示-20250714
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-14 05:32