Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of pulp remains at a high level, with a loose supply side in the fundamental aspect and limited improvement in the downstream demand side. The operating rate is maintained at a low level. However, the futures market is easily affected by macro - sentiment recently. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5130 - 5390 this week [4] Summary by Directory 1 Paper Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Last week, the spot market price of pulp declined slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star increased by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.34%) to 5920 yuan/ton, while the prices of coniferous pulp Cariboo and Northern Wood remained flat at 6000 yuan/ton and 6200 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of broad - leaf pulp Goldfish, Bird, and Alpine remained unchanged at 4020 yuan/ton, 4020 yuan/ton, and 4030 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe, virgin pulp Venus, sugarcane pulp, bamboo pulp, and reed pulp also remained stable [9][13] - Pulp Futures Review: The pulp futures contract SP2509 oscillated and rebounded within a 230 - point range last week. It closed at 5234 yuan/ton, up 166 yuan/ton (or +3.28%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.422 million lots, a decrease of 103,000 lots compared with the previous week, and the weighted open interest was 274,000 lots, a decrease of 51,200 lots [14] - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 686 yuan/ton, and the discount amplitude decreased by 146 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [18] - Log Futures Review: The main log futures contract 2509 oscillated within a narrow range last week. It closed at 786.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 1.13%) compared with the previous week. The weighted trading volume was 87,800 lots, a decrease of 13,700 lots, and the weighted open interest was 28,700 lots, an increase of 1,200 lots [20] 2 Paper Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Pulp Weekly Output: Last week, the pulp output was 475,000 tons, a slight increase of 1,000 tons (or +0.21%) compared with the previous week. The output of broad - leaf pulp was 206,000 tons, and the output of chemical mechanical pulp was 202,000 tons. It is expected that the output of domestic broad - leaf pulp will be about 210,000 tons and the output of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons this week [4][22] - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 76.2%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 84.8%, an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous week [27] - Monthly Pulp Output: In June 2025, the domestic pulp output was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 72,000 tons (or - 3.36%) compared with the previous month. Among them, the output of wood pulp was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 63,000 tons (or - 7.69%), and the output of non - wood pulp was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 2.69%) [28] - Monthly Production Profit: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.3 yuan/ton (or - 25.31%) compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 1503.03 yuan/ton (or - 75.28%) compared with the same period last year. The production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, with a loss reduction of 41.1 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [36] - Pulp Imports: In May 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.016 million tons, an increase of 123,200 tons (or +4.26%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 196,000 tons (or +6.95%) compared with the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 15.55 million tons, an increase of 320,000 tons (or +2.1%) compared with the same period last year [38] 3 Paper Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, the domestic tissue paper output was 279,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons (or - 0.71%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, a decrease of 0.3% compared with the previous week [40] - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, the output of coated paper was 78,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or +1.30%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 57.3%, an increase of 0.4% compared with the previous week. The output of offset paper was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.49%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.8%, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the previous week [44] - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: Last week, the output of white cardboard was 301,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons (or - 3.83%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.41%, a decrease of 2.93% compared with the previous week. The output of white board paper was 193,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (or - 0.52%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.44%, a decrease of 0.35% compared with the previous week. The output of corrugated paper was 463,600 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons (or - 1.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.15%, a decrease of 1.21% compared with the previous week. The output of boxboard paper was 619,000 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons (or +0.9%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 68.35%, an increase of 0.6% compared with the previous week [47][50] - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: In the tissue paper market, the prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper remained stable. In the cultural paper market, the price of double - copper paper decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 0.93%), while the price of double - offset paper remained unchanged. In the white board paper market, the prices remained stable, while in the white cardboard market, the price of some products decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.26%). The prices of corrugated paper and boxboard paper remained stable [51][55][57] - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, the output of tissue paper was 1.193 million tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons (or - 2.37%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.0%, a decrease of 1.5% compared with the previous month. The output of white cardboard was 1.29 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons (or +0.78%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 73.3%, an increase of 2.58% compared with the previous month. The output of double - offset paper was 862,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons (or - 3.04%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.37%, an increase of 0.1% compared with the previous month. The output of coated paper was 327,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (or - 2.97%) compared with the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.35%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous month. The actual consumption of domestic pulp in June 2025 was 3.195 million tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons (or - 1.6%) compared with the previous month [59][64][67] 4 Paper Pulp Inventory Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory of pulp is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (or - 1.54%) compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of Qingdao Port is 1.364 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons (or - 1.02%). The inventory of Changshu Port is 605,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons (or +1.17%), and the inventory of Tianjin Port is 59,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or - 4.84%) [70][71] - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 238,500 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.65%) compared with the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 218,700 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons (or - 0.7%) [75]
纸浆：受宏观情绪影响，纸浆期货震荡反弹
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-14 05:44