海外宏观周报：美国贸易政策风险再升-20250714

Group 1: US Trade Policy and Economic Data - Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on imports from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, with a delay on "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1[1] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 227,000, marking the lowest level in two months and a fourth consecutive week of decline[1] - The GDPNow model predicts a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2 2025[1] Group 2: Global Market Overview - US stock markets declined, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 0.3%, 1.0%, and 0.1% respectively, primarily due to rising trade uncertainties[1] - The Euro STOXX 600 index rose by 1.1%, while the Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.6%[1] - The US dollar index increased by 0.91% to 97.87, reflecting heightened inflation risks and cautious rate cut expectations[1] Group 3: Bond and Commodity Markets - The 2-year US Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 3.90%, while the 10-year yield increased by 8 basis points to 4.43%[1] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.0% and 2.9% respectively, driven by lower Russian production[1] - Gold prices increased by 0.6%, reflecting a rise in risk aversion among investors[1] Group 4: Economic Risks and Forecasts - Risks include potential overreach of Trump's policies, unexpected levels of stagflation in the US, and volatility in global financial markets[1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July increased from 4.7% to 6.7%[1]