格林大华期货玉米生猪鸡蛋早盘提示-20250714

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: Interval [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the spot market is generally weak and stable; in the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten and the price center will move upward; in the long term, policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the pig price may fluctuate; in the medium term, the supply is expected to increase and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg price stops falling and stabilizes; in the medium term, it may rebound; in the long term, if the breeding profit turns positive, the supply pressure may reappear and the price may fall [3]. Content Summaries by Variety Corn - Market Review: Last Friday night, the corn futures continued to be weak. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 1.25% to 2283 yuan/ton [1]. - Important Information: As of the end of the 28th week of 2025, Guangzhou port's grain inventory was 1.75 million tons; as of July 11, the four northern ports' corn inventory was about 2.56 million tons, and the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 3350 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton; on July 11, the auction of imported genetically - modified corn had a 49% transaction rate [1]. - Market Logic: Short - term: Imported corn auctions continue with a lower transaction rate, and the overall bullish expectation in the spot market weakens. Medium - term: Imported grains and substitutes are expected to decrease, and the supply pattern will gradually tighten. Long - term: Policy grain sources and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term: Interval operation; medium - term: Go long at low levels; short - term: Under pressure, the support for the 2509 contract moves down to 2260 - 2280 [1]. Pig - Market Review: Last Friday, the main pig futures contract fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.1% to 14345 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.04% to 13645 yuan/ton [3]. - Important Information: On the 13th, the national average pig price was 14.64 yuan/kg; in May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million; on July 11, the fat - standard price difference was 0.11 yuan/jin; on July 10, the weekly average slaughter weight was 124.74 kg; on July 11, the pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 447 lots [3]. - Market Logic: Short - term: Support and pressure coexist, and the pig price may fluctuate. Medium - term: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term: Go short; medium - term: Interval operation; short - term: Try to break through the upper pressure. Pay attention to the band short - selling opportunities after the price reaches the pressure level. The pressure for the 2509 contract is 14400 - 14600, and for the 2511 contract is 13800 [3]. Egg - Market Review: Last Friday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2508 contract fell 0.15% to 3442 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract rose 0.22% to 3580 yuan/500kg [3]. - Important Information: On the 13th, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs rose to 2.58 yuan/jin; on the 11th, the average inventory in the production and circulation links decreased; on the 11th, the average price of old hens rose to 4.7 yuan/jin; in June, the number of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the estimated number in July is 1.352 billion [3]. - Market Logic: Short - term: The egg price stops falling and stabilizes. Medium - term: It may rebound in August - September. Long - term: If the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3]. - Trading Strategy: The JD2508 contract operates in a wide range, with support at 3400 - 3420 and pressure at 3580 - 3600. The JD2509 contract adopts a short - selling strategy, with short - term pressure at 3650 - 3680 and support at 3500 - 3550. If the culling in the third quarter is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3].