有色金属套利周报-20250714

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250714" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage, domestic demand is in the off - season, downstream enterprise operating rates are decreasing, orders are reducing, aluminum rods are continuously accumulating inventory, and there is a risk of aluminum prices rising and then falling in the near term. After the off - season ends, demand is expected to support aluminum prices again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on a low - rolling basis [4]. - For the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. However, aluminum social inventory is low, which supports prices, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on a low - rolling basis [4]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - Weekly Price Review: LME copper decreased from 9852 on 2025/7/4 to 9663 on 2025/7/11, a decrease of 1.92%; LME aluminum increased from 2597.5 to 2602, an increase of 0.17%; LME zinc increased from 2735.5 to 2738, an increase of 0.09%; LME lead decreased from 2057 to 2017, a decrease of 1.94%; LME nickel decreased from 15260 to 15235, a decrease of 0.16%; LME tin decreased from 33770 to 33565, a decrease of 0.61%. SHFE copper decreased from 79730 to 78430, a decrease of 1.63%; SHFE aluminum increased from 20635 to 20695, an increase of 0.29%; SHFE zinc decreased from 22410 to 22380, a decrease of 0.13%; SHFE lead decreased from 17295 to 17075, a decrease of 1.27%; SHFE nickel decreased from 122270 to 121390, a decrease of 0.72%; SHFE tin decreased from 267250 to 263940, a decrease of 1.24% [8]. - Capital Flow: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, lead's single - side open interest increased by 10.5% month - on - month, while copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin's single - side open interest decreased by 13.2%, 4.1%, 1.3%, and 9.8% respectively. Except for aluminum and lead, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. Part II: Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit Situation - Inventory Situation: LME copper inventory increased from 95275 on 2025/7/4 to 108725 on 2025/7/11, a week - on - week increase of 14.12%; LME aluminum inventory increased from 363925 to 400275, an increase of 9.99%; LME zinc inventory decreased from 112325 to 105250, a decrease of 6.30%; LME lead inventory decreased from 263275 to 249375, a decrease of 5.28%; LME nickel inventory increased from 202470 to 206178, an increase of 1.83%; LME tin inventory decreased from 2110 to 1970, a decrease of 6.64% [26]. - Profit Situation: For copper, this week's processing fees increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters had a loss of 2440 yuan/ton, with the loss narrowing slightly month - on - month. For aluminum, this week's theoretical smelting cost was 18470 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit decreased slightly to 2290 yuan/ton. For zinc, this week's imported processing fees increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic mines was 1126 yuan/ton [41]. Part III: Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - Basis: On 2025/7/11, the copper basis was 400, the aluminum basis was 65, the zinc basis was 130, the lead basis was - 5, the nickel basis was 1170, and the tin basis was 2880. The basis premium rates were 0.51%, 0.31%, 0.58%, - 0.03%, 0.96%, and 1.09% respectively [44]. - LME Premiums and Discounts: The document provides historical data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's 0 - 3 premiums and discounts from 2019 - 2025 [54]. - Term Structure: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, and copper was in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts and the nearby contracts were as follows: for copper, it was - 140, an increase of 120 compared to last week; for aluminum, it was - 140, an increase of 40; for zinc, it was 45, an increase of 75; for lead, it was 30, a decrease of 25; for nickel, it was 90, a decrease of 30; for tin, it was 210, a decrease of 50 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of major non - ferrous metals were copper (1.13), aluminum (1.11), zinc (1.14), lead (1.18), nickel (1.11), and tin (1.10). This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes, and the zinc - to - lead domestic - to - overseas ratio was at a relatively high level in history [78]. - Import Profit and Loss: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and copper were 286 and 2.4 respectively, while the import profit and loss of other major metals were negative. Domestic - overseas arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic stable - growth policies [78]. Part V: Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - Cross - variety Ratios and Differences: The document provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences such as copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, etc., as well as their respective ratio and difference quantiles [96].