不锈钢、沪镍：波澜不惊，回归基本面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - Stainless Steel: Policy to address "involution - style" competition and eliminate backward production capacity stabilizes the market, and a slight reduction in July's steel mill production schedule also helps. However, high inventory and capacity pressure remain. With weak downstream consumption and high - cost dynamic decline, it will follow a weak fundamental pattern after short - term macro - driven sentiment fades, with an operating range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan [2]. - Nickel: At a low valuation, short - term industry policies support a bottom - stabilizing. Short - term focuses are on Indonesian mining policy changes and the US employment market. In the long run, the contradiction between profit contraction and capacity expansion will lead to large inventory de - stocking and capacity optimization pressure. The short - term price will run in the weak range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pure Nickel & Stainless Steel - Basis: The fluctuation amplitude weakens, and the spot - futures price difference narrows. Stainless steel prices are flat compared to last week, with futures at a 50 - yuan discount. Refined nickel prices dropped by 1,000 yuan, and futures are at par [7][9]. - Inventory: The inventory of the entire industrial chain is at a historical high. The nickel ore end has moderate inventory, while downstream nickel - iron, stainless steel, and refined nickel inventories are all high. The social total inventory of stainless steel is 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [10][11]. - Production Profit: Although prices are low and production profits are shrinking, some steel mills' processes still have profits [14]. - Output and Export: In June, production decreased but remained at a high historical level, and external demand was strong. Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory has been transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is increasing. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [17][19]. - Domestic and Overseas Inventory: Refined nickel's domestic exchange inventory is transferred overseas, and the proportion of LME nickel from Chinese brands is expanding. Stainless steel warehouse receipts are decreasing due to weak spot markets [19]. 3.2 Nickel - Iron - Price: The price of high - nickel iron in the market is 905 - 915 yuan/nickel, a 5 - yuan decrease from last week. The nickel ore price at the mining end is firm, and the cost of Indonesian nickel ore has weakened [27]. - Production Profit: Overseas imported nickel - iron profits remain high, while domestic nickel - iron steel mills face pressure from upstream and downstream, with immediate profits showing full - scale losses. Indonesian nickel - iron profits have also decreased. From January to May 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 4.516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.882 million tons or 24.3% [30]. - Output and Import - Export: In 2025, the import volume of nickel - iron remains high. From January to May, the total import volume was 4.516 million tons, with 4.404 million tons from Indonesia, a year - on - year increase of 25.6% [32]. 3.3 Nickel Intermediates - Price: The total inventory of chromium ore at national ports is 2.994 million tons. South African chromium ore inventory accounts for 85% of the total, a 1% increase from last week [36]. - Production Profit: The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel hydroxide has increased, and the immediate profit loss has intensified. The cost of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans has also increased, and the production immediate profit loss has intensified [39]. - Output: The production of nickel sulfate from Indonesian MHP and high - ice nickel has increased [41][43]. - Import Volume: The import volume data of nickel ore, nickel sulfate, MHP, and high - ice nickel are presented in the report [47][49]. 3.4 Supply and Consumption of Nickel - Supply: The total supply of primary nickel in 2024 was 2.464 million tons, with a monthly value of 206,800 tons in a certain month. The total supply of stainless steel from China and Indonesia in 2024 was 4.581 million tons [52]. - Consumption: The consumption of primary nickel in China in 2024 was 2.5524 million tons [52].