铁矿石周度策略报告：政策预期催化，警惕上方高度-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct. - Affected by the warm short - term sentiment, it is expected that iron ore will operate at a high level [2][35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Price Performance 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Trends Review - Futures market: As of July 10, the price of the iron ore main contract I2509 rebounded this week, closing at 763.5 yuan/ton, with a position of 659,900 lots, an increase of 20,500 lots [6]. - Spot market: This week, the spot prices of imported ores at ports rebounded overall. The price of 64.5% Karara fines at Qingdao Port decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 835 yuan/ton, while the prices of 62.5% BRBF, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba fines, and 56.5% Super Special fines increased by 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively. Among domestic ores, the price of 64% iron concentrate powder in Shahe remained at 750 yuan/ton, while the prices of 66% iron concentrate powder in Tangshan and 65% iron concentrate powder in Anshan increased by 9 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - Spot variety spreads: This week, the overall correction range of imported ore prices was relatively consistent, with relatively small spread changes. For example, the spread between Karara fines and PB fines increased by 8 yuan/ton, the spread between PB fines and Super Special fines decreased by 9 yuan/ton, and the spread between BRBF and PB fines decreased by 3 yuan/ton [11][12]. - Futures - spot and futures inter - monthly spreads: This week, the main 2509 contract of iron ore had a premium of 13.5 yuan/ton over the 61.5% PB fines spot at Qingdao Port, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between 2509 - 2601 was 28 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the spread between 2601 - 2605 was 19.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [15]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Overseas ore shipments and domestic arrivals: As of July 4, the weekly shipment from Australia was 1.5852 million tons, and that from Brazil was 0.5789 million tons, with a total of 2.1641 million tons, a 13.6% decrease compared with the previous week. Overseas ore shipments have continuously declined from historical highs, and China's future iron ore supply will decrease significantly [22]. - Domestic mine capacity utilization rate: As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of 126 domestic mines was 62.93%, a decrease of 1.57% compared with the previous week [23]. - Iron ore freight rates: The freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.47 US dollars, a decrease of 0.3 US dollars compared with the previous week, and the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was 7.38 US dollars, an increase of 0.24 US dollars compared with the previous week [24]. 3.2.2 Demand - As of July 11, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills slightly increased to 59.74%. However, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 83.15% compared with the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate also decreased by 0.39% to 89.9%. The daily average hot metal output continued to decline by 10,400 tons to 239,810 tons this week, reaching the lowest level in 3 months, with the year - on - year increase remaining stable at 0.64%. Although the weekly hot metal output weakened, it was still at a high level in the same period, and steel mills maintained small - scale replenishment. The daily consumption of imported ores by the current sample steel mills was 298,490 tons, a decrease of 23,200 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.08 days, an increase of 0.43 days compared with the previous week [25][28]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Overseas ore arrivals from the previous rush continued to arrive, but the port operation efficiency was limited. The number of vessels waiting at ports increased by 11 to 103 this week, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high. Steel mills' enthusiasm for picking up goods remained strong. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 13.76589 million tons, a decrease of 112,510 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 14 months. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1951 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons; the number of vessels at ports was 99, an increase of 8. - This week, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills decreased by 23,200 tons to 298,490 tons compared with the previous week, approaching the lowest level in 3 months, but still higher year - on - year. Steel mills continued small - scale replenishment, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased by 61,070 tons to 8.97964 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory - to - consumption ratio increased to 30.08 days, reaching a new high since May [29]. 3.3 Summary and Investment Suggestions - This week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly, while the arrivals increased slightly, with overall supply remaining flat. Steel production decreased significantly this week, and blast furnaces continued to cut production, with expected further reduction in hot metal. Port inventories declined slightly, while steel mill inventories increased slightly, and the port clearance volume weakened. - Overall, supply tightened last week, and demand continued to slow down, with no obvious change in the supply - demand balance. Short - term domestic anti - involution signals are still fermenting, coupled with the expectation of the resurgence of shantytown renovation, which warms up the short - term sentiment. However, in the later stage, the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off - season may still be traded, and there is still room for iron ore prices to correct [35].