国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250714

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron Ore: Supported by macro - expectations, it will fluctuate strongly [2][4]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The sector sentiment remains strong, and they will have wide - range fluctuations [2][7][8]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon: They will have wide - range fluctuations [2][13]. - Coke: A round of price increase has started, and it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Coking Coal: Affected by news, it will fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Steam Coal: The daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2][21]. - Log: The main contract is switching, and it will have wide - range fluctuations [2][24]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures closed at 764.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton (0.07%). The positions increased by 1,947 hands. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose 4.0 yuan/ton to 845.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In June 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.1% year - on - year [4]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: Rebar RB2510 closed at 3,133 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (1.10%); Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,273 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.24%). Spot prices in various regions generally increased [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Steel production and inventory data in late June 2025 were released. Vietnam announced anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel, excluding coil products wider than 1.88m [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [12]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon - Fundamentals: Silicon ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,460 yuan/ton, down 116 yuan/ton; Manganese ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5,746 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in some regions increased [13]. - Macro and Industry News: Ghana plans to build a manganese refinery, and there are price changes in silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon in the market [14]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 913 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (1.78%); Coke J2509 closed at 1,519.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton (1.50%). Spot prices of some coking coal and coke remained stable [18]. - Price and Position: There are price quotes for coking coal in northern ports, and position changes in the top 20 members of DCE [18][20]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for coke, 1 for coking coal [20]. Steam Coal - Previous Day's Performance: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton [21]. - Fundamentals: There are price quotes for steam coal in southern ports and domestic origins, and no position changes in the top 20 members of ZCE [22]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [23]. Log - Fundamentals: The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. There are price and position data for different contracts, and price quotes for various log products in the spot market [24]. - Macro and Industry News: The US president extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period [26]. - Trend Intensity: 0 [26].