山金期货黑色板块日报-20250714

Report Overview - Report Name: Shanjin Futures Black Sector Daily Report - Update Time: August 14, 2025, 08:23 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodities have experienced pulse - like price increases recently due to news - related factors. The market is currently trading on weak current realities and strong expectations. For both steel products and iron ore, short - term long positions should be closed at high prices, and new short - term long positions can be considered after sufficient adjustments. Empty - position investors should avoid chasing the rising market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Threaded Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Last week, the production of threaded rebar decreased, factory inventories increased, social inventories continued to decline, and total inventories decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. With the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventories are likely to rise slightly [2]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is rising steadily, but it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [2]. - Data Summary: - Price: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous week [3]. - Production: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill rebar production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.00% [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, while the factory inventory increased by 0.42% [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with nearly 60% of sample steel mills making a profit. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 million tons. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, molten iron output is expected to decline further. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and is rising seasonally. The current port inventory decline rate has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore inventory is relatively high, exerting obvious pressure on the futures price [3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle. The short - term rise is mainly due to news factors, and it faces resistance from previous gaps and the annual moving average [4]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term long positions should be closed at high prices. After sufficient adjustments, short - term long positions can be established again. Empty - position investors should not chase the rising market [4]. - Data Summary: - Price: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices increased. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 763.5 yuan/dry ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [4]. - Shipment: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1585.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.40%, and the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 578.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.47% [4]. - Inventory: The total port inventory was 13765.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% [4]. 3.3 Industry News - China Iron and Steel Industry Association's vice - president Wang Yingsheng stated that in the short term, domestic steel demand in the second half of 2025 is likely to decline. In the long term, China's steel demand will remain at a peak - level range for a long time. It is predicted that China's crude steel output will be between 800 million and 900 million tons in 2035 and will remain at around 800 million tons after 2050 [6]. - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the prices of coking products. From July 14, the price of tamping wet - quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 75 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 95 yuan/ton [6]. - The coke price in the Xingtai market is planned to be raised, with tamping wet - quenched coke up 70 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke up 75 yuan/ton, top - charged wet - quenched coke up 90 yuan/ton, and top - charged dry - quenched coke up 95 yuan/ton [7]. - A coal mine in Changzhi with a production capacity of 7.1 million tons resumed production on July 12, which will relieve the shortage of lean coal supply in the region to some extent [7]. - According to Gangyin E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 725.69 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% [8].