螺纹周报：“反内卷”主逻辑驱动，钢价震荡偏强-20250714

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is ★★ [7] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the 2510 contract for rebar rose 1.65%. Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the fundamentals of upstream coking coal and coke are gradually improving, driving the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][6][37][38] Summary by Directory Price Analysis - Futures Price: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the rebar futures main contract daily K-line chart [8][10] - Spot Price: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [15] - Basis and Spread: No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [16][18] Important Market Information - On July 11, 2025, relevant departments released a notice to add green power consumption ratios for the steel, cement, and polysilicon industries and new data centers at national hub nodes in 2025 [19] Supply - Side Situation - No specific analysis content provided, only mentioned the data source [20][23] Demand - Side Situation - As of June 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 52.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Circulation Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 45.6, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% [27] Fundamental Analysis - On July 11, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee believed that the coke market should raise prices as soon as possible. The coke price in Xingtai market is planned to be increased, with different price increases for different types of coke, and the adjusted price will be implemented from 0:00 on July 14 [36] 后市展望 - Currently, steel prices are supported by the "anti-involution" logic, and the improvement of the upstream coking coal and coke fundamentals drives the overall black sector to fluctuate strongly [37] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [38]