纯碱周报：纯碱供需矛盾，市场弱势持续-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the trend of soda ash is weakly stable with relatively flexible prices. The spot supply - demand is weak, providing insufficient support for futures prices, and investors should avoid blind optimism [9][11][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2509 fluctuated between 1244 - 1163 yuan/ton, maintaining a low - level oscillation. As of the afternoon close on July 4, 2025, the main futures contract SA2509 rose 43 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.66%, closing at 1217 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - As of July 10, 2025, the domestic soda ash production was 709,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous period. Among them, the light soda ash production was 308,800 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 400,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate was 81.32%, remaining unchanged. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 82.56%, a 1.24% increase, and the joint - production capacity utilization rate was 70.33%, a 3.04% decrease [7][12][14]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,863,400 tons, an increase of 15,300 tons or 0.83% compared to the previous Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 791,300 tons, a decrease; the heavy soda ash inventory was 1,072,100 tons, an increase. The enterprise shipment slowed down, and some enterprises had inventory accumulation [8][16]. - The shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 655,100 tons, a 1.69% decrease; the overall shipment rate was 92.40%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points. The supply was adjusted at a high level, mainly shipping previous orders, and the production - sales rate remained in a weak balance [18]. - Demand Side - As of July 10, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 158,400 tons, a 0.41% increase compared to the 3rd. The weekly output was 1.107 million tons, a 0.33% increase from the previous period and a 7.16% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of July 10, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 67.102 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.983 million weight boxes or 2.87% compared to the previous period, and a 5.54% increase year - on - year. The inventory days were 28.9 days, a decrease of 1 day compared to the previous period [26]. Market Price - The prices of some raw materials and products changed. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 2 yuan/ton or 0.32%; the price of well - mined salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of light soda ash in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.57%; the price of heavy soda ash in South China decreased by 50 yuan/ton or 3.45%; the price of float glass decreased by 3 yuan/ton or 0.26%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 46 yuan/ton or 1.98% [32]. Market Outlook - Supply Side: Production and capacity utilization remain unchanged, with narrow fluctuations in device operation and relatively stable supply. The inventory increased slightly [9][34]. - Demand Side: The supply of soda ash is adjusted at a high level, downstream demand is average, mainly purchasing at low prices and making appropriate supplements. The overall intention to stock is low, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the production - sales rate remains in a weak balance [9][34]. - Production Forecast: It is expected that the float glass production line will be stable this week, while the photovoltaic glass has a reduction expectation of about 2300 tons [11][34].