市场平静，油脂震荡整理

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, domestic oil prices fluctuated and consolidated. The palm oil in the producing areas is still in the seasonal production - increasing cycle, but the production in Malaysia decreased slightly in June, slowing down the inventory - building speed and the supply - demand pressure is not significant. The inventory of soybean oil is building up rapidly with average consumption and is expected to continue to increase. Rapeseed oil has a high current inventory, but the future supply decline is relatively clear and will enter the de - stocking cycle. Overall, the domestic oil inventory level still has room to rise. As oils are in the off - season of consumption and the downstream market mainly replenishes goods based on rigid demand, it is expected that the domestic oil futures prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - This week, oil futures prices fluctuated and consolidated. The soybean oil Y2509 contract rose 0.53% to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2509 contract rose 2.48% to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2509 contract fell 1.75% to close at 9,439 yuan/ton [5][27]. - In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.692 million tons, exports were 1.2594 million tons, and inventory was 2.03 million tons. Exports were significantly lower than expected, and inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Malaysian palm oil rose 2.78% [6][27]. - For the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production was lowered by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean yield per acre remained unchanged at 52.5 bushels. US soybean crushing was raised by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels due to the increased demand for soybean oil in the bio - fuel industry. US soybean exports were lowered by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels due to domestic demand growth and strong exports from Argentina and Ukraine. The US soybean ending inventory was raised by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels. US soybeans fell 3.89% this week [7][28]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,190 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [9]. - As of July 10, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,670 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [11]. 3.3 Other Data - As of July 4, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 80,000 tons to 1.141 million tons. On July 9, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 524,000 tons [14]. - As of July 10, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,475,410 tons [17]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 204 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [18]. - As of July 10, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 32 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at the average level compared with the past 5 years [19]. - As of July 11, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 141 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From a seasonal perspective, it is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - The content in this part is basically the same as the abstract and the core view, emphasizing the price trends of different oils, the production, export, and inventory situations of palm oil in Malaysia, and the adjustments to US soybean production, crushing, exports, and ending inventory. It also reiterates the future trends of domestic oil inventories and price expectations [27][28].