国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]