宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain has returned to fundamental-driven, with weakening supply and demand expectations leading to a full - scale decline in prices. The profit distribution pattern of the industry chain has tilted towards the raw material link again. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $68.45 per barrel, up 2.82%; Brent crude oil was $70.36 per barrel, up 2.51%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of isomeric xylene FOB South Korea was $719.50 per ton, down 0.96% [1]. - PTA: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,700 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.89%; settlement price was 4,710 yuan per ton, down 0.38%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4,714 yuan per ton, down 0.67% [1]. - PX: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,694 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 1.30%; settlement price was 6,720 yuan per ton, down 0.44%. Domestic PX spot price was 6,813 yuan per ton, up 0.19% [1]. - PR: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,878 yuan per ton on July 11, 2025, down 0.64%; settlement price was 5,886 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China was 5,955 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - Downstream: On July 11, 2025, CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, down 0.58%; polyester POY remained unchanged at 7,100 yuan per ton; polyester short - fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, down 0.22% [2]. Production and Sales Information - On July 11, 2025, the production - sales ratio of polyester filament was 36%, down 15 percentage points; that of polyester staple fiber was 41%, down 21 percentage points; and that of polyester chips was 61%, down 10 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 5% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market Analysis - PX price rose slightly and then fell this week. The absolute price on Friday decreased by 0.4% month - on - month to $837 per ton CFR. The weekly average price continued to shrink, down 1.2% month - on - month to $846 per ton CFR. Although there was an unplanned shutdown of individual PX devices during the week, the PX supply in Asia remained stable. In the current off - season of polyester consumption, after the sharp decline of PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream start - up [2]. - The PTA inventory is in a downward channel in absolute terms but at a high level in relative terms in the past five years, and the situation of near - term strength and long - term weakness is difficult to change. In July, polyester factories actually implemented maintenance, and the start - up rate decreased significantly compared with June [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5,900 - 6,020 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply of bottle - chips has relatively sufficient market goods, and the downstream end - users have replenished their stocks at low prices recently, and the trading in the market may gradually fade [2]. Trading Strategy - PTA is in a weak consolidation. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,700 yuan per ton, down 0.59%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.17 million lots. PX price has returned to consolidation. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,694 yuan per ton, down 0.83%, with an intraday trading volume of 214,200 lots. PR follows the cost operation. The 2509 contract closed at 5,878 yuan per ton, down 0.31%, with an intraday trading volume of 45,900 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2].