国泰君安期货所长早读-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, both China and the US will release a series of important economic data. In the US, the June CPI and PPI data, as well as the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value, are highly noteworthy. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4%, and the core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but an unexpected inflation data may force the Fed to act. In China, the June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all important [8]. - The stock index futures are in a long - position pattern. Last week, the market continued to rise due to expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of the restart of shantytown renovation. The current policy focus on the supply side is conducive to the repair of price indicators and has a positive impact on corporate profits. As long as there is no unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is expected to continue. However, the trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment [9]. - For various commodities, different trends are predicted, such as gold showing an upward trend in a volatile manner, silver breaking through and rising, and copper prices being under pressure due to weak spot markets [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US and China Economic Data Focus - US Data: The June CPI and PPI data are crucial. Economists expect the June CPI to rise 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI to rise 3% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value also deserves attention. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in July are less than 7%, but lower - than - expected inflation data may lead to an emergency rate cut [8]. - China Data: The June import and export data, June M2 year - on - year, January - June new RMB loans, and social financing scale increment are all worthy of high attention [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The current market is in a long - position pattern. The core changes last week came from expectations of supply - side reform and rumors of shantytown renovation restart, leading to a joint upward movement of cyclical and growth stocks. The policy focus on the supply side is beneficial for price indicator repair and corporate profit improvement. Without unexpected negative news, the long - position pattern is likely to continue. The trend may be reversed by external risk disturbances or a shift in domestic policies towards structural adjustment. This week, the release of domestic economic data and the impact of mid - year report earnings announcements on growth - style stocks should be monitored [9][10]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][19][21]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The spot market is weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend strength is 0 [13][23][25]. - Zinc: It is bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][26][27]. - Lead: Supported by peak - season expectations, the trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - Tin: The price is weakening, with a trend strength of 0 [13][31][34]. - Aluminum: The inventory is low, and the virtual - to - real ratio is high. Alumina requires attention to the inventory accumulation amplitude, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of all three is 0 [13][36][38]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices are oscillating due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strength of both is 0 [13][39][44]. 3.3.3 Energy - related Commodities - Coke: A first - round price increase has started, and it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][66][68]. - Coking Coal: Affected by news, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 1 [13][66][68]. - Steam Coal: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][69][71]. 3.3.4 Other Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse - receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [13][45][48]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side. The trend strength is 1. Polysilicon is affected by policy disturbances, with increased market volatility, and the trend strength is 0 [13][49][51]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strong in a volatile manner, with a trend strength of 0 [13][52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices are oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength of both is 1 [13][55][60]. - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Both are expected to oscillate in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 for both [13][61][64].