Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President's tariff announcements have increased risk aversion, and the Fed may delay rate cuts, causing the US dollar to rebound and global risk appetite to decline. Domestically, China's June PMI continued to rise, and policies to boost employment are expected to lift domestic risk appetite, but external risks need attention. [2] - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, bonds to be volatile at high levels, and different commodity sectors have different trends. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overall situation: Overseas risk aversion is rising due to tariff threats, and the Fed may delay rate cuts. Domestically, economic growth is accelerating, and policies are favorable, but external risks should be noted. [2] - Asset suggestions: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with cautious long positions; bonds are volatile at high levels, with cautious observation; different commodity sectors have different trends, with cautious long or observation positions. [2] Stock Index - Market performance: Driven by sectors such as rare earth permanent magnets, metals, and securities, the domestic stock market rose slightly. [3] - Fundamentals and policies: China's June PMI continued to rise, and policies to boost employment are favorable, but external risks need attention. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations, and the upward macro - drive has weakened. [3] - Operation suggestions: Cautious long positions in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - Market performance: Last week, precious metals were volatile at high levels, with gold at 773.56 yuan/gram and silver at 9040 yuan/kg. [3] - Influencing factors: Trump's tariff threats supported precious metals, but the US dollar's rebound and rising bond yields limited the increase. The Fed's internal differences increased gold's volatility, and silver was relatively strong due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals. [3][4] - Outlook: The long - term support for precious metals remains solid. This week, focus on US CPI data and Fed officials' speeches. [4] Black Metals Steel - Market performance: Last Friday, steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and trading volume was low. [5] - Fundamentals: Demand declined, with a 12.1 - million - ton drop in apparent consumption. Supply decreased, with a 12.4 - million - ton drop in output. Cost support was strong. [5] - Outlook: The steel market is expected to rebound in the short - term. [5] Iron Ore - Market performance: Last Friday, iron ore futures and spot prices continued to rebound. [5] - Fundamentals: The fundamentals weakened marginally, with a drop in molten iron production. Supply decreased after the end - of - quarter rush, and port inventories decreased. [5] - Outlook: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, with the macro - logic dominant. [5] Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Market performance: On Friday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly. [6] - Fundamentals: The demand for ferroalloys decreased due to the drop in steel output. The prices of silicon manganese in different regions and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group changed. The inventory of silicon iron decreased slowly, and the Lanthanum charcoal market rose slightly. [6][7] - Outlook: The prices may rebound following coal prices in the short - term. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Macro - situation: The US's tariff threats on 25 countries have raised concerns, but the implementation time is uncertain, which will affect copper prices. [8] - Outlook: If tariffs are implemented before August 1, copper prices will weaken; otherwise, the price may be supported. [8] Aluminum - Market situation: Affected by the news of urban renewal, the news needs verification. The fundamentals have weakened, but the short - term decline is limited, and it is expected to be volatile. [8] Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased, leading to losses for some enterprises. It is in the off - season, with weak demand. [8] - Outlook: The price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but the upside is limited. [8] Tin - Supply: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has rebounded, but it is still at a low level due to low processing fees. The supply reduction is lower than expected, and the supply of ore is relatively loose. [9][10] - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. [10] - Outlook: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the upside is limited in the medium - term. [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Last Friday, the contract price rose slightly, and the spot price also increased. The production increased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. [11] - Outlook: It is expected to be slightly stronger, affected by the policy, and attention should be paid to macro - disturbances. [11] Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The price rose significantly last week, with an increase in production and the number of open furnaces. [12] - Outlook: It is expected to be slightly stronger, affected by the "anti - involution" theme. [12] Polysilicon - Market performance: The contract price rose last week, and the spot price increased significantly. The supply is stable at a low level, and the downstream prices have changed. [12][13] - Outlook: Affected by policy news, the expectation is strong, and cautious long positions can be considered. [13] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Supply and demand: Although OPEC+ increased production, the short - term demand is good, and the inventory is low. The risk of US sanctions on Russia exists. [14] - Outlook: The price will be supported in the short - term. [14] Asphalt - Market situation: The price is volatile with the oil price. The shipment has decreased, the factory inventory is accumulating, and the demand in the peak season is average. [14] - Outlook: It will follow the oil price but be slightly weaker. [14] PX - Market situation: The upstream profit has decreased, and the price is at a low level. The downstream PTA's operation has increased, and the price is supported. [14] - Outlook: It will be slightly weaker in the short - term, but the downward drive is limited. [14] PTA - Market situation: The spot liquidity has improved, the basis and monthly spread have decreased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. [15] - Outlook: The upward space is limited in the short - term, but there may be support at a low level later. [15] Ethylene Glycol - Market situation: The port inventory has increased, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. [16] - Outlook: It will be weaker in the short - term. [16] Short - fiber - Market situation: The price has decreased slightly, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, the inventory is high, and the cost support is weakening. [16] - Outlook: It will be weaker in the medium - term. [16] Methanol - Market situation: The inventory has increased, and the fundamentals have deteriorated on the spot side, but the futures have rebounded. [16] - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract can be considered for long positions. [16] PP - Market situation: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. [16] - Outlook: The price is expected to decline. [16] LLDPE - Market situation: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. [17] - Outlook: It may rebound in the short - term, but the upside is limited, and the price may decline in the long - term. [17] Agricultural Products US Soybeans - USDA report: The report maintained the yield and production expectations, but increased the expected inventory and lowered the price. [18][19] - Outlook: The market is neutral to bearish, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. [19] Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal - Market situation: The cost of imported soybeans may be weak, which will drag down soybean meal. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has decreased, and the consumption of rapeseed meal is far from expected. [19] - Outlook: The upward space for soybean meal in the 09 contract is limited, and the price of rapeseed meal is under pressure. [19] Oils - USDA report: The report has limited impact on the palm oil market. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia has increased, and it is under pressure. [20] - Domestic situation: The inventory of palm oil has recovered, and the demand is weak. The supply of soybean oil is loose, and the supply of rapeseed oil is improving. [20] Corn - Market situation: Affected by wheat substitution and corn auctions, the market sentiment has cooled, and the downstream is cautious. [20][21] - Outlook: The price may rebound after over - decline, and short - selling should be cautious. [21] Pigs - Market situation: The supply from large farms has increased, and the price is under pressure. [21] - Outlook: The price may decline slightly in the short - term. [21]
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250714
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-07-14 06:58