豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal futures are expected to continue oscillating. The domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with a high - level soybean crushing volume, but the downstream demand is weak, leading to continuous accumulation of soybean meal inventory. Meanwhile, the good weather in US soybean - producing areas strengthens the expectation of a loose supply, but there are also supporting factors such as the continuous strengthening of Brazilian premiums and the key price level of US soybeans. Also, the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies causes concerns about the soybean supply in the fourth quarter [6]. - The soybean oil futures are in a stage of wide - range oscillation. The concentrated arrival of soybeans and high - level oil mill crushing volume, combined with the seasonal off - season of terminal consumption and weak downstream purchasing demand, result in continuous accumulation of soybean oil inventory. However, there is support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors due to the strengthening of Brazilian soybean discounts [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean meal contract is in a sideways oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. The soybean meal inventory was 822,400 tons, an increase of 130,800 tons or 18.91% from the previous week. The high operating rate of domestic oil mills, high - level soybean crushing volume, weak downstream demand, good weather in US soybean - producing areas, strengthening of Brazilian premiums, the key price level of US soybeans, and the uncertainty of US trade tariff policies all affect the market. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices was sideways, with slightly more long - side funds. The M2509 contract was expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures prices is sideways, with strongly short - side funds. The M2509 contract is expected to continue oscillating in the range of 2880 - 3080 [9][10]. 3.1.3 Variety Diagnosis - The variety diagnosis shows that the main funds are strongly short - side, with a multi - short flow of - 95.5. The fund energy is - 62.3, indicating a relatively large outflow of funds. The multi - short divergence is 99.7, suggesting a high risk of market reversal [14]. 3.1.4 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio of soybean meal [18][20][23]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The main soybean oil contract is in a wide - range oscillation stage. - Trend judgment logic: In the 27th week, the actual soybean oil production of 125 oil mills was 443,100 tons, a decrease of 29,600 tons from the previous week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week. The concentrated arrival of soybeans, high - level oil mill crushing volume, seasonal off - season of terminal consumption, and weak downstream purchasing demand lead to inventory accumulation. There is also support from the US biodiesel policy expectation, palm oil market, and cost - side factors. - Strategy suggestion: It is recommended to wait and see [29]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices was sideways, with slightly short - side funds. The Y2509 contract was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term. - This week's strategy suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures prices is sideways, with relatively short - side funds. The Y2509 contract is expected to maintain wide - range oscillation in the range of 7800 - 8100 in the short term [32]. 3.2.3 Related Data - The data sources include Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The related data involve weekly production, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operating rate, and weekly port inventory of soybean oil and soybeans [41][42][46]