甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - Downstream Demand: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - Inventory: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - Profit: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - Downstream Demand: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - Inventory: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - Overall: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].