Guoxin Securities·2025-07-14 07:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic wind power industry is expected to see long-term demand remain optimistic, with significant cost advantages in electricity generation. The share of wind power development is likely to increase under the backdrop of comprehensive new energy market entry [3][4] - The wind turbine price is expected to rebound due to multiple factors, leading to a recovery in profitability for turbine manufacturers. The competitive landscape is improving as companies focus on profitability rather than just market share [3][25] - Emerging markets are anticipated to experience a turning point in wind power demand, with significant export opportunities for Chinese wind turbines. The export capacity is projected to reach 5.2GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3][25] Summary by Sections Domestic Wind Power Industry Development - The long-term outlook for the domestic wind power industry remains positive, with a projected CAGR of 106% for the retirement of old wind turbines from 2025 to 2030, creating demand for new equipment [3][12] - The average new installed capacity for onshore wind is expected to be 120GW in 2025, while offshore wind is projected at 10GW [12] Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers, with a 5%-10% increase in bidding prices for turbines in 2024 [3][25] - The average new installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind turbines is expected to reach 5.9MW and 10.0MW respectively by 2024, reflecting a significant increase from 2020 [20][24] Export Market Potential - The report emphasizes the growing international market for Chinese wind turbines, with a projected CAGR of 44% from 2020 to 2024 for exports [3][25] - The report notes that the international brand influence of Chinese wind turbines has been increasing, leading to a significant rise in overseas orders [3][25] Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The average cost of onshore wind power is expected to decrease to 0.1-0.15 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.5 yuan/KWh in 2002, representing an 88% reduction [24] - The average cost of offshore wind power is projected to decline to 0.3 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.3 yuan/KWh in 2009, a 74% decrease [24] Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the competitive landscape is improving, with a focus on fair competition and self-regulation among manufacturers to mitigate "involution" in the industry [3][42] - The concentration of the wind turbine manufacturing industry is increasing, with the top five manufacturers accounting for 75% of new installations by 2024 [33][34]