集运指数（欧线）：08关注交割逻辑，10空单轻仓持有

Report Overview - Date: July 14, 2025 - Subject: Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Analysts: Huang Liunan, Zheng Yujie 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The past week saw the container shipping index fluctuate and strengthen slightly. In the short - term, the market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU. Looking ahead to August, there is likely a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand at the monthly level. Freight rates may start to decline more rapidly in late August. For the strategy, it is recommended to hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [9][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Futures: EC2508 closed at 2,030.6, down 0.71%; EC2510 at 1,382.0, down 1.40%; EC2512 at 1,540.9, down 1.48% [1] - Freight Rate Index: SCFIS European route was 2,258.04 points, up 6.3% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route was 1,557.77 points, down 3.8% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] - Spot Freight Rates: Rates for different carriers from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for 40'GP ranging from $3110 - $3845 and for 20'GP from $1855 - $2604 [1] - Exchange Rates: The US Dollar Index was 97.86, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.17 [1] 3.2 Market Freight Rate Conditions - In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, while the Gemini Alliance had a slight increase. The OA and PA Alliances, including ONE and HMM, kept their rates. The market freight rate remained stable around $3350/FEU [9] - Different alliances and carriers had different rate adjustments in July. For example, the FAK price of MSC decreased from $3640/FEU in early July to $3440/FEU in late July [9][10] 3.3 Shipping Capacity - The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 30.1 million TEU/week. In the past week, Maersk's overtime ship was redirected, and the capacity in week 31 was revised down to 33.5 million TEU [11] - The weekly average shipping capacity in August is 31.5 million TEU/week. Potential changes include whether Evergreen's "EVER GOVERN" will be dispatched, whether Maersk will send an overtime ship, and the situation of ship schedule delays [11] - In September, there are 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages. Excluding pending voyages, the weekly average shipping capacity is 29.3 million TEU/week, but this value has limited reference significance for now [11] 3.4 Shipping Company Loading and Rate Adjustment - The Gemini and OA Alliances had a relatively high proportion of long - term contracts, and their loading in late July was optimistic. MSC increased its shipping capacity in late July, faced more pressure in cargo collection, and reduced its FAK list price by $200/FEU. Only Yang Ming followed with a $100/FEU reduction [12] 3.5 Future Freight Rate Forecast and Strategy - Neutral Scenario: Spot FAK may be revised down to $3100 - $3200/FEU in wk31 and wk32, and then decreased by $200/FEU in wk33 and wk34. The neutral valuation of 08 is around 2050 points, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may be in the range of 2050 - 2150 points [13] - Pessimistic Scenario: If Maersk adds a new overtime ship in wk33, it may cut prices to stock up in wk32, leading other carriers to cut prices, and the delivery settlement price of 2508 may move down to the range of 1950 - 2050 points [13] - Optimistic Scenario: If the OA Alliance raises prices in wk31 and wk32, the 2508 contract may have at least 200 points of premium water market [13] - Strategy: Hold a light short position for the 10 - contract and consider a pyramid - style build - up, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points. For the 2508 contract, pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions for delivery in the range of 1950 - 2000 points [13]