行业投资策略：绿电消纳考核范围拓宽，有望持续提升绿电环境溢价

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting the stability of hydropower business models and the increasing value of green electricity in a low-interest-rate environment [1] - The assessment indicates a tightening of green electricity consumption requirements for key industries, which is expected to enhance the market value of green electricity [4][12] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality A/H share renewable energy operators with stable profitability as potential investment targets [30] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Assessment - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of renewable energy consumption assessments, tightening requirements for industries such as steel, polysilicon, and cement, with specific targets set for 2025 and 2026 [4][12][19] - The actual consumption responsibility weight for renewable energy in 2025 has increased compared to the expected targets for 2024, with an average increase of 1.77 percentage points for total consumption and 2.48 percentage points for non-hydropower consumption [17][18] Group 2: Green Certificate Market Dynamics - The supply of green certificates is expected to contract, with a significant inventory clearance anticipated by the end of 2025, which may lead to an increase in the market price of green certificates [5][21][22] - The average price of green certificates has shown a significant increase, with a 63.24% rise in April 2024 and an 18.12% increase in May 2025, indicating a recovering market [25][26] - The narrowing supply-demand gap for green certificates is projected to enhance the environmental value returns for operators, with a potential increase in revenue per megawatt-hour as the coverage rate improves [5][27] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on renewable energy operators with strong asset quality and stable profitability, listing specific companies such as Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, and Datang Renewable Power as beneficiaries of the evolving market dynamics [30][31]