Macroeconomy - Domestic policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, with supply - side reform expectations rising in industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, and leading stocks' valuations being repaired [2] - Trump's tariff delay to August 1 eases short - term pressure, but long - term uncertainty may suppress foreign - trade - dependent sectors [2] - The domestic A - share market continues to rise, with broad - based indexes hitting new highs this year. Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.07%, the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.12%, and the SSE 50 Index rose 0.92%. Overall, large - cap stocks rose moderately, mid - cap stocks showed resilience, and small - cap stocks led the gains [2] - The mid - term trend of stock index futures is still biased towards volatile upward movement under low risk - free interest rates and policy -利好 expectations, but short - term pullback risks should be vigilant [2] Crude Oil - The low US dollar index supports oil prices, but the US non - farm payroll data reduces the possibility of a July interest rate cut, and the OPEC + July meeting has an expectation of accelerated production increase, so short - term oil prices will mainly fluctuate [3] - The IEA raises the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.1 million barrels per day. The OPEC + July meeting may increase production, so the long - term price center of crude oil will move down. However, the upcoming summer peak season provides some support for oil prices [3] - WTI main contract is expected to start a rebound around $65 per barrel [3] Gold - Fed officials' statements on interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lead to mixed factors for gold prices. The market bets that the probability of a September interest rate cut is 65.4%, but the expectation of no action in July still accounts for 92.8%. Gold prices are under short - term pressure [4] - On July 11, Asian - session spot gold fluctuated higher, trading around $3350 per ounce [4] - Spot gold may test the resistance of $3342 per ounce. If it breaks through, it may rise to the range of $3357 - $3374. In the short term, it may maintain a high - level volatile state [6] Silver - On July 11, the international spot silver price continued to rise, breaking through $38 per ounce to reach $38.06 per ounce, hitting the highest level since 2012 [7] - The Fed's June meeting minutes show differences among officials on interest rate cuts. Trump's tariff delay causes supply - chain anxiety. The increase in Shanghai silver registered warrants indicates spot support [7] - If spot silver effectively breaks through $37.5, it may rise to the range of $38.8 - $40. Be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" of the Fed's July decision and inflation rebound pressure after the August tariff implementation [7] Chemicals PTA - The raw material PX supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the current PTA spot processing fee is at a relatively low level, so the short - term cost support for prices is strengthening. PTA supply pressure increases significantly, while demand is weak [8] - PTA will continue the range - bound trend in the short term [8] Ethylene Glycol - The overall ethylene glycol operating load and coal - based operating rate increase, but the whole process is in deep loss except for coal - based with a small profit. Low inventory supports prices, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the third quarter and other factors suppress the upward space [9] - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound state between 4200 - 4400 yuan per ton [9] PVC - PVC production capacity utilization rate changes slightly, demand from downstream products enterprises has no obvious improvement, and social inventory increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11] PP - The average polypropylene capacity utilization rate and production decrease slightly, downstream industry average opening rate drops, and port inventory decreases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [12] Plastic - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises decreases, the average opening rate of downstream products has a slight change, and the inventory of production enterprises increases. The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash supply is relatively stable, inventory increases, and demand is average. The market has limited new driving forces, and it is in a bottom - range - bound trend. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range - bound thinking in the short term [14] Glass - Glass supply increases slightly, inventory continues to decline, and demand is weak. The market fundamentals have limited driving forces, and the disk fluctuates greatly affected by macro - sentiment and enterprise price increases. It is recommended to treat it with a slightly bullish and volatile thinking in the short term [15][16] Rubber - Rubber prices are affected by macro factors. The supply is in a loose state as the main producing areas have good weather and new rubber production increases. The downstream tire opening rate decreases, and trade negotiations affect export orders. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream opening rate and the rebound height [17] Methanol - The methanol futures price decreases, port inventory increases, the domestic operating rate drops due to device maintenance, and the demand of MTO devices increases slightly while traditional downstream demand is weak. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [18] Agricultural Products Corn - The US 2025 corn planting area is slightly lower than expected, which supports the futures price. The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain transition period, and the price fluctuates downward affected by wheat substitution and policy - grain auctions. The downstream demand is weak [19] - The short - term corn futures price will test the support around 2300 yuan per ton [19] Peanut - The estimated domestic peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year. Currently, the market is in a situation of both supply and demand being weak, with prices difficult to have large fluctuations. The short - term futures price will be range - bound [20] Cotton - The US cotton production forecast is revised downward. The domestic new - year cotton supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term supply is expected to be tight before the new cotton harvest. The demand is weak. The short - term cotton price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14000 yuan per ton [21] Soybean Meal - Internationally, tariff policies and weather are the main driving factors for prices. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is prominent, and the demand is strong. The short - term soybean meal futures price will be range - bound [22] Soybean Oil - Internationally, attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean oil is large, and it is in the consumption off - season. The short - term soybean oil futures price will be range - bound [23] Pig - The long - term pig market will continue to release production capacity. In the short term, the slowdown of supply rhythm supports prices, while terminal consumption is weak. The short - term futures price will run with a slightly bullish and volatile trend, and it is expected to test the 14500 yuan per ton level [24][25] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient, demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price will be in a low - level volatile state. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Metals Shanghai Copper - The US copper import tariff issue causes large fluctuations in US copper prices. Domestic policies support the market, but raw material problems and inventory changes make the copper market more complex. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the retest strength of the moving - average system [27] Shanghai Aluminum - Trump's tariff policy causes fluctuations in the metal market. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is high, demand is in the off - season, and inventory begins to accumulate. It is recommended that aggressive investors conduct range operations, and conservative investors wait and see [28] Alumina - The supply of bauxite is tight, and the demand for alumina is rigid but the procurement rhythm slows down. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the past four years, and the main contract may test the pressure level of 3300 yuan per ton [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported by tight scrap - aluminum supply, but the supply is in excess, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is increasing. The 2511 contract will maintain a range - bound state [31] Lithium Carbonate - The cost of lithium carbonate is supported by stable lithium - ore prices and large inventory reduction. Supply is at a high level, demand is in the off - season, and the futures price stops rising. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait for signals [32] Industrial Silicon - The production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in July. Although large - scale enterprises' production cuts reduce the supply surplus, the supply is still large. The demand varies in different fields. The short - term futures price will be slightly bullish and volatile, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance may intensify [33] Polysilicon - The supply of polysilicon shows structural differentiation, and the demand side has strong bargaining power. The market trading is light. The short - term price may be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of price decline [34][35] Black Metals Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel disk is in a weak and volatile state. The raw - material cost supports prices, supply pressure exists, demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory decreases slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the low - level range [36] Rebar - The rebar disk rebounds strongly due to improved macro - sentiment. The cost support is strengthened, demand increases slightly in the off - season, inventory is low, and supply is expected to shrink. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [37] Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil disk rebounds and then consolidates. Similar to rebar, it is affected by macro - sentiment, cost support, and supply - demand factors. It is recommended to maintain a slightly bullish thinking and hold long positions [38] Iron Ore - The global iron - ore shipment volume decreases in July, demand is weak in the off - season, and port inventory is at a high level. The main contract will be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [39] Coal - The supply of coking coal improves marginally but the increase is limited. The demand for terminal steel supports coal prices, and inventory decreases. The supply of coke is tight as inventory is reduced, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm increases. The main contracts of coking coal and coke will be slightly bullish and volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [40][41]
安粮期货股指日报-20250714
An Liang Qi Huo·2025-07-14 07:12