沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that although there are disruptions in the production or transportation of multiple copper mines overseas, due to the Trump administration's imposition of high - tariff policies on multiple countries and the emergence of the traditional consumption off - season in the domestic market, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,430, a decrease of 170 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, a decrease of 17,565 lots; the open interest was 178,682 lots, a decrease of 2,386 lots; the inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 23,307 tons, an increase of 1,578 tons [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 11, 2025 was 9,663, a decrease of 19 compared to the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 108,725 tons [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper on July 11, 2025 was 5.584, an increase of 0.04 compared to the previous day; the total inventory increased by 10,797 tons [2]. 3.2 Important Information - Macro: The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to $500 billion and $560 billion by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the scale of weekly Treasury bond auctions. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not led to a significant rebound in consumer - end inflation. The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with the expected time for rate cuts being September or December [2]. - Upstream: Wildfires in northern Manitoba, Canada, have caused Hudbay Minerals to suspend operations at its Snow Lake mine. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates has increased compared to last week. The export volume of Australian copper concentrates has decreased. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted. The domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper price difference is negative, and the domestic scrap copper production or import volume in July is expected to decrease, with a tight supply - demand outlook. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or have new production capacity coming online. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and the total inventory of electrolytic copper in China have increased compared to last week, as has the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper [2]. - Downstream: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods used in East China's power and cable industries has decreased compared to last week. Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production to lower inventory. The operating rates of some copper - related industries have changed, with the operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, and copper plate and strip increasing, while those of steel pipes and brass rods decreasing. The domestic steel enterprises' production capacity, production volume, and import volume in July are expected to decline [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to try shorting the main contract with a light position, paying attention to the support levels of 76,000 - 78,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,600 for London copper, and 5.0 - 5.58 for US copper, and the resistance levels of 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,900 - 10,200 for London copper, and 6.0 - 7.0 for US copper [2].