工业硅、多晶硅日评：“反内卷”情绪推动，硅系价格走势坚挺-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The spot price of industrial silicon increased, while the futures price decreased. The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased slightly. Due to the supply - demand situation, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon may continue to be strong in the short - term, and short - term operations are recommended. For industrial silicon, the supply may be less than expected, and polysilicon demand may increase due to resumption of production. For polysilicon, the supply may increase slightly, and the demand is still weak, but the sentiment of price increase is strong [1]. Group 3: Summary of Specific Information by Category 1. Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.76% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.65% to 8,415 yuan/ton. The price of various types of industrial silicon in different regions also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: The price of DMC increased by 3.35% to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the prices of other products such as 107 glue and silicone oil remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also remained stable [1]. 2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Siyuan Xinneng Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans a nearly 3 - billion - yuan silicon - carbon anode project in three phases, with an expected annual sales of 4 - 6 billion yuan and tax payment of about 300 million yuan after full production [1]. - Some photovoltaic glass enterprises have cold - repair plans. There will be nearly 2,000 tons/day of production reduction in July and an additional 2,400 tons/day in August [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Industrial silicon - Supply: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements, no resumption of production news. Southwest production areas will enter the rainy season, and the power cost will decrease, but the resumption of production is slow. After supply increase and decrease offset, there may be a reduction [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories will resume production in July, bringing some demand increase; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak; silicon aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, but some new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, and the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials have increased. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have increased recently, the terminal market is still weak [1]. 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The short - term may continue to be strongly sorted, and short - term operations are recommended. In the medium - and long - term, there is pressure on the upside [1]. - Polysilicon: The short - term price may continue to be strong, and price fluctuations may intensify. Short - term operations are recommended, and attention should be paid to actual start - up and supply - side reform implementation [1].