Report Summary 1. Market Performance on July 11, 2025 - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3510.18, with an intraday increase of 1.3%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.61% to 10696.10, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.80% to 2207.10. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1712.1 billion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: It closed at 4014.81, up 4.78 [2]. 2. Futures Market 2.1. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal closed at 922.8 yuan, up 27.7. The price of main - coking coal in Lvliang area increased by 50 yuan to 1100 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market was strong, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port rising by 3 to 754 yuan/ton and Mongolian No. 3 clean coal rising by 3 to 843 yuan/ton. Mines are gradually resuming production, and upstream inventory pressure is decreasing [3][4][5]. - Coke: The weighted index of coke closed at 1524.1, up 41.5. The spot price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port increased by 30 yuan to 1260 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises plan to raise prices for the first time due to production losses and price rebounds in black varieties [3][5]. 2.2. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, US sugar rose on Friday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract rose slightly overnight. Brazil's expected sugarcane planting area in 2025 is 9.168506 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 0.2% decrease from the previous year. The production is estimated to be 692.988023 million tons, a 0.1% decrease from the previous month's forecast and a 1.9% decrease from the previous year [5]. 2.3. Rubber - Due to the increase in the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, long - positions were liquidated, causing the Shanghai rubber to fall overnight. As of July 11, the inventory of natural rubber was 213,589 tons, up 817 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 188,690 tons, down 160 tons. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 40,422 tons, up 4,638 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts were 36,994 tons, up 7,258 tons [6]. 2.4. Soybean Meal - International Market: On July 11, the CBOT soybean futures price fell slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US soybean harvest to 4.335 billion bushels, with an average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre, lower than the 4.34 billion bushels in June. Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 11.93 million tons, a 24% increase year - on - year [7][8][9]. - Domestic Market: On July 11, the main soybean meal contract M2509 closed at 2976 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. Domestic oil mills have sufficient soybean supply, high operating rates, and large soybean meal production. Feed and breeding enterprises have certain inventories and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. After September, there is a large gap in imported soybean orders, providing support for the forward market [9]. 2.5. Live Pigs - On July 11, the main live pig contract LH2509 closed at 14,345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has recovered, and the overall slaughter rhythm has accelerated. The terminal market is in the off - season, and the demand is insufficient, so the pork price lacks support. In the medium and long term, there is still supply pressure [10]. 2.6. Shanghai Copper - Affected by the expected 50% tariff on Canadian copper products by the US, market speculation is suppressed. The supply side shows an increasing trend, the demand side is weak, and the global exchange inventory is increasing, putting pressure on prices. The copper price is in a balanced state between macro - negative and industry - positive factors and will likely maintain a volatile pattern [11]. 2.7. Cotton - On Friday night, the main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 13,905 yuan/ton. As of July 14, the basis price of Xinjiang designated delivery warehouses was at least 430 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 32 lots compared with the previous day [11]. 2.8. Logs - The 2509 log contract opened at 787, with a low of 784.5, a high of 794, and closed at 786, with a reduction of 387 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The port log inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the supply - demand relationship was stable. Attention should be paid to spot prices and import data [12]. 2.9. Steel - Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the black sector has risen recently, and steel prices have maintained a volatile and strong trend. However, as the basis converges and some areas start production restrictions, there is still pressure on black sector prices in the future. Steel prices will likely maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term [12]. 2.10. Alumina - Guinea has entered the rainy season, and the ore shipment volume has decreased significantly this week. The supply side of alumina has both production cuts and restarts. In the long term, there is an expectation of supply surplus, but in the short term, the low inventory of futures and the shortage of deliverable resources may drive prices up [12][13]. 2.11. Shanghai Aluminum - The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and the ingot casting volume is tight. The low - inventory pattern supports aluminum prices, and the sustainability of inventory accumulation needs to be observed [13].
国新国证期货早报-20250714
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-07-14 07:20