中泰期货晨会纪要-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Financial: For stock index futures, consider gradual profit - taking or covered strategies; for treasury bond futures, consider hedging and reducing duration. The market may have a demand for profit - taking due to potential short - term positive news realization. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist [7][8]. - Black Metals: The black market may continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. Recommendations are to wait and see or engage in spot - futures positive arbitrage when prices are high. Coal and coke may rebound in the short term due to policy expectations but remain weak in the medium term. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [10][11][12]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For aluminum and alumina, it is recommended to short at high prices. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline. Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation with continued attention to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [16][19]. - Agricultural Products: For cotton, consider short - selling at high prices; for sugar, the short - term trend is oscillatory and strong; for eggs, maintain a strategy of short - selling on rebounds; for apples, use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy; for corn, wait and see; for dates, lightly short - sell; for live pigs, short the near - term contracts with light positions [21][23][26][27]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil is expected to be in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Fuel oil and asphalt prices follow crude oil. Plastics and methanol are expected to oscillate weakly. For caustic soda, maintain a short - selling mindset. For the polyester industry chain, consider short - selling at high prices. LPG prices are likely to decline, and for pulp, observe port destocking and spot trading improvement. For logs, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate. For urea, maintain a long - buying mindset [33][36][37][40][41][43][44]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3500 points. The market is discussing a high - level meeting on urban renewal. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has revised the GEM Composite Index compilation plan. There may be a demand for profit - taking due to short - term positive news realization [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The central bank's reverse repurchase has turned to net investment. The focus in the bond market is whether the downward shift of the capital center can persist. Consider hedging and reducing duration [8]. Black Metals - Steel and Iron Ore: Macro - policy expectations have improved in the short and medium term, but large - scale stimulus policies are likely to come later. Downstream steel demand has seasonal and marginal weakening. Supply is expected to remain high, and the valuation of the futures market is expected to rise. The market may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - Coal and Coke: They are rebounding in the short term due to policy expectations. In the medium term, they are weak due to crude steel production cuts and macro - policies. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the supply of coke follows [11]. - Ferroalloys: The market is oscillating at a relatively high level with increased volatility. The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to hold short positions and add more short positions on rebounds [12]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is rising in the short term following market sentiment, and it is advisable to avoid short - selling for now. Glass is recommended to be bought at low prices. Soda ash has supply - surplus and high - inventory problems, while glass has improved inventory removal [13][14]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is affected by international negotiations and consumption weakness, with an increasing inventory accumulation expectation. Alumina has a relatively loose supply. Both are recommended to be short - sold at high prices [16]. - Zinc: Social inventories are increasing, and the production of smelters is accelerating. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate and decline [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is in a short - term tight - balance state but is expected to be in surplus in the long term, with limited upward driving force [18]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to turn to oscillatory operation, and polysilicon is expected to maintain a relatively strong operation. Attention should be paid to follow - up measures and warehouse receipt generation [19][20]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: It is oscillating and rebounding in the short term but is under long - term demand pressure. Consider short - selling at high prices [21]. - Sugar: It is oscillating and strong in the short term. There is an expected increase in supply, which may suppress prices [23][24]. - Eggs: They are in a seasonal upward trend, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [26]. - Apples: Use a light - position positive arbitrage strategy. The old - season apples' prices are falling, and the new - season apples are expected to oscillate [27]. - Corn: The market is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to the valuation repair opportunity after the market has fallen excessively [28][29]. - Dates: Consider short - selling with a light position. The market is in a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the short term [30]. - Live Pigs: Short the near - term contracts with light positions. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It is likely to enter a supply - exceeding - demand pattern in the long run, oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the US - Iran agreement and the summer peak demand [33]. - Fuel Oil: Its price follows crude oil. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East and weak shipping [34][35]. - Plastics: The short - term market sentiment may support prices, but the supply - exceeding - demand situation remains. Consider holding put options or short - selling slightly [36]. - Methanol: It is expected to oscillate weakly. The supply of imports has recovered, and the port inventory is gradually increasing [37]. - Caustic Soda: Do not chase high prices. Maintain a short - selling mindset as the futures contract may face pressure [38]. - Asphalt: Its price follows crude oil. The market is in a seasonal off - peak season with only rigid demand [39]. - Polyester Industry Chain: Consider short - selling at high prices. The industry's supply - demand situation is weak, and the price rebound is difficult to sustain [40]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): It is expected to decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term [41]. - Pulp: Observe whether port destocking continues and spot trading improves. The price is expected to have limited upward and downward space [41]. - Logs: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate. The import is expected to be weak, and the demand is also soft [43]. - Urea: Maintain a long - buying mindset as there are high export profit expectations and export opportunities [43][44].