尿素早评：供应仍有压力，转机在于出口-20250714

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still around 800,000 tons. In July, the top - dressing demand will support the price, and low - buying opportunities can be considered. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure, and the subsequent turning point lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On July 11, UR01 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), UR05 was 1,738 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan or 0.06% from July 10), and UR09 was 1,773 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan or - 0.23% from July 10). [1] - Spot Prices: Among domestic small - particle urea spot prices, the price in Hebei increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) to 1,810 yuan/ton on July 11, while prices in other regions remained unchanged. [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 122 yuan/ton on July 11, down 1 yuan from July 10. The 01 - 05 spread remained unchanged at - 4 yuan/ton. [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively on July 11. [1] - Downstream: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 11. [1] Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1,776 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,787 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,767 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,773 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,776 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2509 was 197,786 lots. [1] Trading Strategy Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to the support of top - dressing demand in July. But be aware of the significant downward pressure on prices if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented. [1]