中原期货晨会纪要-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade pattern is at a critical turning - point in 2025. The US's erratic tariff policies are driving the global trade system towards greater diversification, and the influence of the US in global trade is gradually weakening [7]. - Some economic policies and events, such as the extension of the EU's suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs, the possible implementation of US tariffs on other countries, and the acceleration of local special bond land acquisition projects, are having an impact on the market [8]. - Different sectors in the market, including agriculture, energy, industry, and finance, are showing various trends and challenges, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to different situations [10][11][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: On July 14, 2025, compared with July 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 279.13 points (-0.625%), the Nasdaq Index decreased by 45.13 points (-0.219%), and the S&P 500 declined by 20.71 points (-0.330%). The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.026 (0.027%), while the US dollar against the Chinese yuan (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - Foreign Contracts: COMEX gold rose by 37.3 (1.119%), COMEX silver increased by 1.45 (3.854%), NYMEX crude oil went up by 1.88 (2.811%), and ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.54 (2.236%). Some metals like LME copper, LME aluminum, etc., showed small declines [2]. - Domestic Contracts: In the metal category, gold and silver prices increased, while copper, zinc, and other metals decreased slightly. In the chemical industry, most products such as coke, plastic, and PTA rose, while some like natural rubber and 20 - number glue declined. In the agricultural products sector, some products like yellow soybean No. 1 and palm oil increased, while others like corn and corn starch decreased [2][4] 3.2 Macro News - Global trade is evolving, with the US's position weakening and emerging economies becoming new growth points. Diplomatic activities, such as the meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, are promoting international cooperation [7]. - Domestic economic research and policy - related activities are underway, like the National Development and Reform Commission's research in Hebei and the proposal of interest - rate cuts by a former Fed official [7]. - Trade policies and tariff issues are the focus of international attention, including the possible implementation of US tariffs and the EU's response [8] 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - The peanut market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still on a downward trend. The oil market is trading lightly, with prices expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are under pressure due to factors like wheat substitution, and short - term bearish thinking is recommended [10]. - The price of live pigs has peaked and declined. Egg prices are rising, and there is a certain support for the spot market, but there are still pressures such as production capacity release and delivery [10][11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - The price of caustic soda is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure in the range of 2500 - 2600 yuan/ton. The urea market price is stable, and the UR2509 contract should pay attention to the pressure around 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton [11] 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to factors such as the proposed US tariff increase and Fed policy uncertainty. Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but may be restricted by weak orders and export difficulties. Alumina prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the May high [11][13] - The prices of steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate, and the prices of ferroalloys are short - term bullish and long - term bearish. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be firm in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The lithium carbonate market is multi - empty intertwined, and band operation is recommended [13][15][16] 3.3.4 Options and Finance - The A - share market has a positive trading sentiment, and the financial sector is expected to be the main driving force in the short - term. Options trading shows certain characteristics, and different investment strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [18][21][23]