20250714申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250714

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand. Factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production should be monitored [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and expected improvement in concentrate supply and smelting supply, along with a mixed situation in downstream demand, factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production need attention [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metal Price Performance - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,663 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 21.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 108,100 tons, and the domestic basis was 975 yuan/ton [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,335 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 105,600 tons, and the domestic basis was - 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,835 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,602 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 1.23 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 395,725 tons, and the domestic basis was 4,925 yuan/ton [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,300 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,235 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 202.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 204,738 tons, and the domestic basis was 1,176 yuan/ton [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,045 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 33.62 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 252,375 tons, and the domestic basis was - 2,725 yuan/ton [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 263,730 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,565 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 15.21 dollars/ton, the LME inventory daily change was 2,015 tons, and the domestic basis was - 45 yuan/ton [2]. Market Analysis - Copper Market: Currently, the overall low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Downstream demand in China is generally stable and improving, with positive growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, a slowdown in household appliance production growth, and continuous weakness in the real estate market [2]. - Zinc Market: Recently, the concentrate processing fees have been continuously rising. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. In China, automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance production growth is slowing down, and the real estate market remains weak [2].