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西南期货早间评论-20250714
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-07-14 07:35

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on current market conditions and trends [5][7][11]. - For different commodities, it evaluates factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and cost - profit situations to predict price movements and offer trading strategies [14][21][32]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 84.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 5.07 billion yuan. Macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is suggested to stay cautious as there may be no trend - following opportunities [5][6]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange released new regulations for the Sci - tech Innovation Growth Layer, and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on insurance funds' long - term investment. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. Trump announced new tariff policies, and the global trade - financial environment is complex. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue due to factors like "de - globalization", "de - dollarization", central banks' gold purchases, and potential Fed rate cuts. It is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12][13]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to rebound. An important meeting at the beginning of the month emphasized supply - side management, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The price rebound may be limited in the off - season. Technically, the short - term upward trend may continue. Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound and pay attention to position management [14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to rise. Policy expectations boosted the market, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it found support at the previous low. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and take profits in time, with light - position participation [16][17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply - contraction expectations, but the actual production capacity is recovering. Coke demand from steel mills is weak, but cost support exists. Technically, the short - term trend may remain strong. Investors can consider short - term long - buying or wait for mid - term short - selling opportunities, with light - position participation [19][20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese ore supply is increasing, and iron - alloy production is rising while demand is weak, resulting in supply surplus. The cost has limited downward space, and if spot losses continue to expand, low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. Fund managers reduced net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs decreased. Summer demand provides some support, but tariff frictions and price caps on Russia restrict price increases. It is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil declined significantly. The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient supply, and trade frictions are negative for prices. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Raw material prices decreased, and the profit margin turned positive. Supply is relatively loose in the short term. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. Supply is increasing, demand is mixed, and inventory is slightly decreasing. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillating stage. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and exports are affected by tariffs. The profit margin has improved [32][35]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, waiting for policy and demand to materialize. Supply remains high, demand is limited, and inventory is higher than expected. It is expected to be bullish in the medium term [36][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the support from crude oil cost is insufficient. It will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to crude oil price changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and the cost support from crude oil is weak. It may oscillate under pressure in the short term. Look for high - selling opportunities and control risks [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory is accumulating but at a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and it is advisable to participate in a range - bound manner and pay attention to inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, demand feedback is negative, and the supply load is high. It may oscillate with cost changes. Be cautious about the repair of processing margins and pay attention to cost and production - cut dynamics [42][43][44]. Bottle - Chip - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Raw material prices are oscillating, and production capacity is being adjusted through maintenance. Inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate with cost changes. Participate cautiously and monitor raw material prices [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. Production is stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve [46][47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, but the price increased due to the pull of the energy sector and cost - support expectations. It is expected to rebound in the short term [48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose slightly. Production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and the alumina market is expected to oscillate upward. The overall support for caustic soda is limited [49][51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. Supply is expanding, downstream demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, and the trading atmosphere is light [53][54][55]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. Although there are expectations of supply - side reform, the supply - demand surplus remains. Inventory is high, and prices are difficult to reverse before large - scale capacity clearance. Do not chase high prices [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The US announced a 50% tariff on copper exports to China, causing price fluctuations. The short - term trend is uncertain, and it is advisable to go long in the short term in the main contract [57][58][59]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The tin - ore supply is tight, and the overall supply is short. Downstream demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate upward [60]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The nickel - consumption expectation is positive due to the solid - state battery concept, but the actual demand is weak, and the supply is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. US soybean production is affected by weather, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment and call options for soybean oil after correction [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. June inventory was higher than expected, and exports were lower than expected. Domestic palm oil inventory is decreasing. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices declined. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory is at a high level. Consider long - buying opportunities for the oil - meal ratio [68][69]. Cotton - Domestic cotton futures oscillated. The USDA's supply - demand report is negative, and the global supply - demand is expected to be loose. It is advisable to short - sell at high prices [70][71][73]. Sugar - Domestic sugar futures oscillated. International sugar production expectations are adjusted downward, and domestic inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75]. Apple - Apple futures oscillated. The expected production reduction is disproven, and there is a slight increase in production. Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [77][79][80]. Live Pigs - The live - pig price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment. Supply is increasing in the middle of the month, and demand is weak in the off - season. Consider short - selling at high prices [81][82]. Eggs - Egg prices rose slightly, but the cost is high, and the profit is low. Egg production is increasing, and it is advisable to hold short positions [83][84][86]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn - starch futures declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the inventory pressure is reducing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [87][88][89]. Logs - Log futures rose slightly. Overseas export willingness is decreasing, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery [90][91][92].