超长债周报：情绪压制，超长债小跌-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, there were many negative factors in the bond market, including a tightening of the capital market, relatively smooth progress in tariff updates, and a certain increase in the stock market and commodities during the domestic "anti-involution" movement, which suppressed bond market sentiment. The bond market fell rapidly throughout the week, with ultra-long bonds experiencing a slight decline [1][3][12][35]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year Treasury bond was 21BP, at a historically low level. The 5-month domestic GDP year-on-year growth rate was about 5.0%, slightly lower than April but still higher than the annual economic growth target. There is still a risk of deflation. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the term spread protection for the 30-year Treasury bond is limited [2][13]. - As of July 11, the spread between the 20-year China Development Bank bond and the 20-year Treasury bond was 3BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economy still shows resilience, but there is still downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection for the 20-year China Development Bank bond is limited [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - Ultra-long Bond Review: This week, the bond market was affected by multiple negative factors, resulting in a rapid decline in the bond market and a slight decline in ultra-long bonds. Last week, the trading activity of ultra-long bonds decreased slightly but remained quite active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][12]. - Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook: For 30-year Treasury bonds and 20-year China Development Bank bonds, the spreads are at historically low levels. The domestic economy shows resilience but also faces downward pressure. The bond market has more opportunities than risks as the 10-year Treasury bond approaches 1.7%, but the spread protection is limited [2][3][13][14]. - Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview: As of June 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds exceeded 22.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 14.5% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. The 30-year variety has the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market - Weekly Issuance: Last week (July 7 - July 11, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, totaling 83 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds accounted for the majority. By term, 30-year bonds had the largest issuance volume [20]. - This Week's Planned Issuance: The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 224.1 billion yuan, including 123 billion yuan of ultra-long Treasury bonds and 101.1 billion yuan of ultra-long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - Trading Volume: Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was quite active, with a trading volume of 1.0286 trillion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity decreased slightly compared to the previous week [27]. - Yield: This week, due to multiple negative factors, the bond market fell rapidly, and ultra-long bonds declined slightly. The yields of different types of ultra-long bonds changed to varying degrees [35]. - Spread Analysis: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed, both at low absolute levels [44][47]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main 30-year Treasury bond futures contract TL2509 closed at 120.61 yuan, with a decline of 0.49%. The total trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly compared to the previous week [50].