申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefins declined. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable from Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, polyolefin consumption entered a relative off - season with average spot prices. Futures prices mainly followed costs and market sentiment. With the cooling of the Middle - East conflict and the decline of international oil prices, cost support weakened. Polyolefins are gradually consolidating horizontally to digest selling pressure. Future focus is on the supply contraction effect during summer plant maintenance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price Changes: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 34, 37, and 38 yuan respectively, with declines of - 0.46%, - 0.51%, and - 0.52%. For PP, the corresponding prices decreased by 35, 43, and 43 yuan, with declines of - 0.49%, - 0.61%, and - 0.60% [2] - Trading Volume: LL had trading volumes of 50879, 393, and 274059 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures. PP had trading volumes of 31987, 671, and 241668 [2] - Open Interest: LL's open interest was 114403, 2066, and 432521 for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures, with changes of 1978, 186, and - 6302. PP's open interest was 106141, 4496, and 394188, with changes of - 2679, 263, and - 2015 [2] - Price Spreads: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 36, - 49, and 13 (previous values: 33, - 50, 17). For PP, the spreads were 17, - 32, and 15 (previous values: 9, - 32, 23) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: Methanol futures decreased from 2400 to 2373 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased from 6415 to 6400 yuan/ton, and South China propane decreased from 577 to 567 dollars/ton. PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film prices remained unchanged [2] - Mid - stream Spot: For LL, the price ranges in East, North, and South China markets were 7200 - 7650, 7150 - 7400, and 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. For PP, the price ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7100, and 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On July 11, 2025, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $68.45 per barrel, up $1.88 or 2.82% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.36 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.51% [2]