贵金属日评：特朗普政府对更多国家加征关税，美联储主席鲍威尔或存辞职可能-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut is delayed, but due to the slower - than - expected debt issuance pace of the US Treasury, continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on dips. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 771.30 yuan/g, with a change of 2.26 yuan compared to the previous day and 0.26 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3333.00 dollars/ounce, with a change of 37.30 dollars compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3335.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.50 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8872.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 121.00 yuan compared to the previous week. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 2.29 dollars/ounce, with a change of 39.08 dollars compared to the previous week. London silver spot price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.69 dollars compared to the previous week. [1] - Price Ratios: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 85.57, with a change of - 1.37 compared to the previous week. The ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.88, with a change of - 2.49 compared to the previous week. [1] Important News - US Policy: The Trump administration plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU starting August 1st. The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 50 billion and 85 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively, through increasing the weekly benchmark Treasury issuance scale. [1] - Central Bank Policies: The Fed's July rate - cut probability is low due to higher - than - expected non - farm payrolls in June, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/December. The European Central Bank cut rates by 25 basis points in June, and the market expects 1 - 2 more rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut its key rate by 25 basis points in June, and there is an increasing expectation of rate cuts in August and 2 - 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points in January and may reduce quarterly Treasury purchases from 400 billion to 200 billion yen in April 2026. [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3150 - 3250 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/g and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 35 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 830 - 8600 yuan/ten - grams and the resistance level around 9000 - 10000 yuan/ten - grams. [1]