光伏去产能进行时，工业硅延续反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound. The main reason is that relevant national departments will focus on comprehensively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development of the industry. All links in the industrial chain are expected to achieve capacity transfer and profit repair. The supply side remains in a tight state, and the demand side shows that the installation volume of photovoltaic ground power stations may slow down significantly in the third quarter. Technically, the futures price has confirmed the bottom support and its center of gravity is gradually moving up, and it is expected to show an upward rebound trend in the short term [2][5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8850.00 | 8750.00 | 100.00 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8650.00 | 8500.00 | 150.00 | 1.76% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9200.00 | 9050.00 | 150.00 | 1.66% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10800.00 | 10450.00 | 350.00 | 3.35% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.1 | 55.2 | - 0.1 | - 0.18% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply Side: The operating rate in Xinjiang is maintained at around 50%, the operating rate in Yunnan has rebounded to over 30% during the wet season, and the output in Sichuan is relatively low. The supply side remains in a tight state [2][5][8]. - Demand Side: In July, the start - up of polysilicon has not changed significantly, and some crystal - pulling factories only maintain low inventories. The silicon wafer price is supported by the upstream silicon material price, and the production schedule in July will decrease by 10% month - on - month. The operating rate of photovoltaic cell manufacturers is extremely low, and market demand has weakened significantly. The component market is cautious about price adjustment and prefers to keep prices stable. Driven by the anti - involution policy, manufacturers have no intention to continue the strategy of trading volume with price. The leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to jointly cut production by 30% in response to the policy. The social inventory last week was maintained at 551,000 tons, and the spot market is gradually stabilizing and rising under the pull of the policy [2][5][8]. - Macro - aspect: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a 14 - month high. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline further expanding. The decline in PPI is mainly due to the seasonal decline in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries, the decrease in traditional energy prices driven by the increase in the proportion of green power industries, and the pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion. However, with the in - depth promotion of the establishment of a national unified market, the year - on - year decline in the prices of some industries will narrow. The establishment of a long - term mechanism to promote consumption and the expansion of relevant policies to boost consumption will drive the prices of some durable goods and necessities to bottom out and rebound. The pursuit of high - quality industries will drive the prices of some high - tech industrial products to continue to rise [6]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was maintained at 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts at the exchange continued to decline. As of July 11, the warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,200 lots, totaling 251,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts cannot be re - registered due to excessive titanium content. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. 3.3 Industry News - Renewable Energy Policy: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in 2025 and related matters. The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator, and provinces will be assessed accordingly. The 2026 weight is an expected indicator. The calculation of the completion of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in each province is mainly based on the actual physical electricity consumption in the provincial administrative region, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from other provinces through the provincial green certificate account. The completion of the green power consumption ratio in key energy - consuming industries is mainly calculated based on green certificates. In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry will be assessed, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and new data centers in national hub nodes will only be monitored [9]. - Aixu Co., Ltd.: Benefiting from the increase in both volume and price of BC components and cost control, Aixu Co., Ltd. is expected to turn losses into profits in Q2 this year. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was between - 170 million and - 280 million yuan. Combining the Q1 financial data, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 20 million to 130 million yuan in Q2. The company optimized its product structure, and the sales of ABC components were booming. The overseas sales proportion increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin continued to improve. The premium of BC products is an important reason for the improvement of gross profit. In terms of cost control, the unit production cost of the production base has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and is approaching the level of mainstream competitors in the industry. In the future, the production cost is expected to be lower than that of TOPCon components [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory at the exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon grades, etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [12][13][15][17]