【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕7月前10产量增35.28% USDA 美豆25/26期末库存料为3.1亿蒲 20250714-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also presents forecasts for crop production and market trends based on various data sources such as USDA, SPPOMA, and NOPA [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products. Currency exchange rates and their fluctuations are also provided [1]. - For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 09 was 4175.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 1% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. - For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8850, with a basis of 150 and a basis change of - 30 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather and Crop Conditions - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from July 16 - 20 shows that rainfall in major soybean - producing states is higher than normal, and central temperatures are lower. The Midwest has suitable conditions for most crops, but some areas like northern Illinois and Indiana need rainfall [3][5]. 3.3.2 Crop Production and Export Forecasts - USDA predicts that the global palm oil production in 2025/26 will be 8073.6 million tons, with unchanged exports from Indonesia and Malaysia compared to last month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 - 10, 2025 [6]. - USDA also provides forecasts for US and global soybean production, ending stocks, and exports in different crop years. For example, the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks are expected to be 3.1 billion bushels [8]. 3.3.3 Market News - Malaysian palm oil exports may increase this month due to buyers' rush to ship before the US tariff policy takes effect on August 1. CFTC position reports show changes in long and short positions for various agricultural products [7]. - USDA reports private exporters' sales of 21.99 million tons of soybeans to Mexico for 2025/2026 delivery. The US biofuel manufacturers' demand for soybean oil is expected to reach a record - high of 15.5 billion pounds in 2025/26, leading to a significant drop in exports [10]. - NOPA monthly report forecasts suggest a decline in soybean crushing in June 2025 compared to May but an increase compared to June 2024. Brazilian soybean planting area and production are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season [11]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The US Treasury's monthly budget report shows a significant increase in tariff revenue in June. Trump announced 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. The IEA adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply and demand, and Russia plans to compensate for over - production in August - September [17]. - The EU Commission President extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [18]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On July 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward (yuan appreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 507 million yuan on that day and a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan for the week [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On July 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 26.685 billion yuan, with 3.417 billion yuan flowing into commodity futures (including 373 million yuan into agricultural product futures, 680 million yuan into chemical futures, 361 million yuan into black - series futures, and 2.004 billion yuan into metal futures) and 23.267 billion yuan into stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.