锌周报：锌价走势反复，关注海外结构变化-20250714

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The tariff policy has reappeared as a disturbance, suppressing market risk appetite, but the impact has weakened marginally. Domestic policy expectations are positive, and the macro - environment is relatively stable. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of high supply and declining demand in the off - season. Stockpiling has accelerated since July, but the strengthening overseas structure provides support. With the coexistence of bullish and bearish factors, zinc prices are fluctuating, and a volatile trading strategy is recommended [3][4][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc price decreased from 22410 yuan/ton on July 4th to 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th, a drop of 30 yuan/ton. LME zinc price increased from 2735.5 dollars/ton to 2738 dollars/ton, a rise of 2.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.19 to 8.17, a decline of 0.02. The SHFE inventory increased by 4617 tons to 49981 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 7075 tons to 105250 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 9.03 million tons, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - The price of the main SHFE zinc contract ZN2508 first declined and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, tariff disturbances and accelerated stockpiling dragged down the price, while in the second half, the strengthening overseas structure and squeeze concerns boosted the price. It finally closed at 22380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. LME zinc stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2738 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. In the spot market, due to the off - season and rising zinc prices, downstream purchasing was weak, and the spot premium declined significantly [6][7] 3. Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly average domestic TC of SMM Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.23 dollars/dry ton to 66.48 dollars/dry ton. The Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) produced 41,800 metal tons of zinc concentrate in Q2 2025, and the annual zinc production guidance remains unchanged at 180,000 - 240,000 metal tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE and LME zinc, the spot premium, LME premium, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][15][17]