铁矿周报：供需双降预期支撑铁矿延续偏强势头-20250714

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak as recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, this weak demand trend is likely to continue. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3610 tons to 337,800 tons [1][5][6]. - Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and expectations rising, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures were strong last week, and the macro - sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 748 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 635 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, the iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 1.20 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 22.94 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.65 million tons, a decrease of 4.173 million tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 14.537 million tons, a decrease of 3.231 million tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.61 tons to 337,800 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development recently stated during a research trip to Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces that it will take multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and resolve risks, and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [11]. - On July 7th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period, postponing the implementation time from July 9th to August 1st [11]. - On July 9th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, relevant officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China's GDP in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan. In the next step, China will adhere to the principle of moderate advancement without excessive advancement, continuously strengthen the foundation, leverage advantages, address weaknesses, and enhance capabilities, and promote the modern infrastructure system to reach a higher level [11]. - The General Office of the State Council recently issued a notice on further strengthening policy support for stable employment, proposing policy measures from seven aspects to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote high - quality economic development [11]. - US President Trump issued letters to Mexico and the EU, announcing that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipments of iron ore, steel products, etc., such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends of these products, steel mill profits, and iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil [10][12][15][16].