中辉有色观点-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, presenting different outlooks for each. For example, gold is expected to be in high - level oscillation, while silver is predicted to rise strongly, and copper is expected to be in a long - term upward trend with short - term fluctuations [1]. - There are uncertainties in the market due to factors such as Trump's tariff policies, Fed's monetary policy, and global economic trends, which have an impact on the prices of different metals [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Core View: High - level oscillation [1]. - Main Logic: The Fed's monetary easing is likely due to high - tariff policies and potential Powell resignation. In the long run, many countries' fiscal expansion and central banks' gold - buying continue, and there are still many uncertainties [1]. - Price Range: [765 - 795] [1]. - Strategy: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, and investors can consider long - term positions [4]. Silver - Core View: Strong upward movement [1]. - Main Logic: Trump's 30% tariff on Mexico affects the friction costs of major silver mines. The long - term price is influenced by base metals and gold prices [1][3]. - Price Range: [9000 - 9375] [1]. - Strategy: With support at 9000, adopt a long - position approach [4]. Copper - Core View: Oscillation in the short - term, long - term bullish [1]. - Main Logic: The impact of US copper import tariffs is diminishing. In the short - term, inventory increases may lead to price corrections, but the decline is limited. In the long - term, the global copper mine shortage persists [1][5][6]. - Price Range: Shanghai copper [77800, 79800], London copper [9600, 9800] dollars/ton [6]. - Strategy: After price corrections, consider long - positions on dips [6]. Zinc - Core View: Under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: In the short - term, zinc concentrate processing fees are recovering, and factors such as overseas steel anti - dumping and Trump's tariff uncertainties affect demand. In the long - term, supply increases while demand weakens [1][7][8]. - Price Range: Shanghai zinc [21800, 22400], London zinc [2680, 2780] dollars/ton [8]. - Strategy: Seize opportunities to short on rallies [8]. Aluminum - Core View: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and the market is entering the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][9][10]. - Price Range: [20100 - 20800] [1]. - Strategy: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to inventory changes [10]. Nickel - Core View: Under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: Overseas nickel ore prices are weakening, downstream stainless steel production cuts lead to inventory reduction, but there is still pressure in the off - season, and pure nickel inventory is accumulating again [1][11]. - Price Range: [118000 - 122000] [1]. - Strategy: Consider short - positions on rebounds, paying attention to stainless steel production cuts [11]. Lead - Core View: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: Supply increases after smelter maintenance, and downstream consumption is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation [1]. - Price Range: [16800 - 17300] [1]. Tin - Core View: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: Myanmar's tin ore supply has not recovered, and consumption has entered the off - season with inventory accumulation [1]. - Price Range: [260000 - 269000] [1]. Industrial Silicon - Core View: Rebound under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: Cost support exists, but fundamental improvement is lacking, and high inventory restricts upward movement [1]. - Price Range: [8240 - 8550] [1]. Polysilicon - Core View: High - level oscillation [1]. - Main Logic: Policy expectations and positive price feedback in the industrial chain support the price, but high prices and margin increases lead to high volatility [1]. - Price Range: [40000 - 42500] [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Core View: Under pressure [1]. - Main Logic: The supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and inventory is at a record high. Although downstream demand shows some growth, it is hard to verify its strength [1][12]. - Price Range: [63800 - 64500] [1][13]. - Strategy: Short - term high - level oscillation, pay attention to the 65,000 resistance [13].