鸡蛋周报：产能去化不足抑制季节性反弹-20250714

Report Information - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025-7-14 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Overall Rating: Oscillating [3] Core Viewpoints - Supply: National egg spot prices have generally risen recently. The traditional price increase from July to August is driven by factors such as accelerated chicken culling during the rainy season, Mid-Autumn Festival stockpiling, and decreased egg production due to high temperatures. However, this year's Mid-Autumn Festival is close to National Day, and the limited industry losses have led to insufficient capacity reduction. The seasonal rebound is expected to be delayed and limited in amplitude [3]. - Demand: This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas increased slightly, the shipping volume in the main production areas fluctuated slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links decreased significantly. As the rainy season nears its end, the egg storage conditions have improved, the purchasing意愿 of egg merchants has increased, and the sales speed and trading volume in the sales areas have increased [3]. - Profit: The breeding profit has continued to decline, significantly lower than the comprehensive cost, and at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. This week, the egg basis decreased slightly, and the premium of the near-month futures contract is at a historical high [3]. - Price and Volume: Currently, the spread between the near and far futures contracts of eggs has decreased slightly and is at a moderately high level. From the perspective of positions, the institutional positions of the main egg futures contract show a net short and oscillating state [3]. - Strategy: The premium of the near-month contract is at a historical high, and the near end faces significant spot selling pressure. The far end is expected to gradually improve as the capacity reduction expectation strengthens. Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding profit losses, the pattern of weak near and strong far in the egg futures is expected to continue. Operationally, considering that the spread between the near and far futures contracts is at a relatively high level, 9 - 11 and 9 - 12 reverse spreads can still be considered [3]. Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Spot Price: Analyzes the main production area price vs. the main sales area price [4][5] - Egg Basis: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [7][8] - Egg Spread: Analyzes the spread between each egg futures contract [10][11] - Futures Institutional Net Position: Analyzes the long - short difference and ratio of institutional positions in the September egg futures contract [13][15] Supply Analysis - Laying Hen Inventory: Analyzes the laying hen inventory and its structure [16][17] - Chicken Culling Situation: Analyzes the chicken culling price and the average culling age [18][19] - Replenishment Situation: Analyzes the price of commercial laying hen chicks and the utilization rate of hatching eggs [21][22] - Large and Small Egg Situation: Analyzes the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of the price difference [23][24] Demand Analysis - Shipping Volume and Sales Volume: Analyzes the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas [25][26] - Inventory: Analyzes the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - Substitutes: Analyzes the seasonal charts of the price ratios of eggs to pork and vegetables [31][33] Profit Analysis - Breeding Profit: Analyzes the current and expected profits and the comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [34][35] - Egg - Feed Price Ratio: Analyzes the egg - feed price ratio, its equilibrium point, and the seasonal chart [37][38]