Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics with a target price of HK$23.28 [3][9]. Core Views - JD Logistics is expected to benefit from the Chinese government's subsidy policies, leading to accelerated revenue growth in Q2 2025 [1][9]. - The expansion of the workforce to support new business initiatives may pressure short-term profit margins, with a forecasted decline in gross margin from 11.9% in Q2 2024 to 10.9% in Q2 2025 [2][9]. - The completion of the acquisition of Kuayue Express is anticipated to significantly reduce minority interests, potentially increasing the net profit attributable to shareholders by approximately 15% for the full year 2025 [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Q2 2025 revenue is expected to grow faster year-on-year, driven by increased consumer demand for home appliances and electronics due to government incentives [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at RMB 205.51 billion, reflecting a 12.4% increase from 2024 [10]. Profitability - Gross margin is projected to decline to 10.9% in Q2 2025, influenced by rising labor costs from workforce expansion [2]. - Non-IFRS net profit margin is expected to decrease to 5.0% in Q2 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2024 [2]. Valuation - The current trading P/E ratio is 10.6 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to domestic peers [3]. - The target price of HK$23.28 suggests a potential upside of 77% from the current price of HK$13.16 [4][9]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a steady increase in earnings per share (EPS), with estimates of RMB 1.18 for 2025, RMB 1.32 for 2026, and RMB 1.56 for 2027 [4][10]. - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025 and 2026 are 12.4% and 9.0%, respectively [10].
京东物流（02618）：2Q25业绩预览：继续扩充产能以支持业务扩张