中辉期货螺纹钢早报-20250714

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish within a range [3] - Iron Ore: Participate within a range in the short - term, and lay out short positions in the medium - term [1][9] - Coke: Bullish in the short - term [10][13] - Coking Coal: Bullish in the short - term [14][17] - Ferroalloys: Bullish with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The recent over - capacity reduction and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment and improved expectations. For rebar, production and apparent demand have both declined month - on - month, and total inventory has slightly decreased. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have slightly declined month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - Iron Ore: On the fundamental side, the demand - side hot metal production is decreasing and is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply - side shipping rush is over, but arrivals are still increasing. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. Short - term trading is mainly sentiment - driven [1][8]. - Coke: The fundamentals of coke have generally changed little. The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills' coking enterprises is still high. The absolute level of hot metal production is high, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Short - term market sentiment has improved [1][12]. - Coking Coal: Domestic coking coal production has been relatively stable recently, with an absolute level lower than the same period last year. However, some shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase. Upstream inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved [1][16]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved. The cost of manganese ore currently supports the price, but there are expectations of cost loosening. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, the cost line has moved down, factory inventory is relatively high, and the difficulty of de - stocking has increased [1][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - Price Range: [3110, 3150] [1] - Market Situation: The current trading logic has shifted from industrial logic to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic. The market is bullish under the background of basis repair [1][5]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - Price Range: [3250, 3290] [1] - Market Situation: The current macro - sentiment is strong, and there are news of production restrictions in some areas. The market is bullish under sentiment and expectation trading [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - Price Range: [750, 780] [1] - Market Situation: Short - term participation within the range, and medium - term short - position layout [1][9] 3.3 Coke - Price Range: [1520, 1550] [1] - Market Situation: Bullish in the short - term, with the market oscillating strongly [1][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - Price Range: [910, 935] [1] - Market Situation: Bullish in the short - term [1][17] 3.5 Ferroalloys 3.5.1 Ferromanganese - Price Range: [5650, 5840] [1] - Market Situation: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, with prices oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the integer mark of 6000 yuan/ton [1][20] 3.5.2 Ferrosilicon - Price Range: [5365, 5555] [1] - Market Situation: In the short - term, the market is mainly sentiment - driven, and the overall supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. The market is expected to operate within the range [1][20]