产地月报公布，油脂走势继续分化-20250714

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. The centers of soybean and palm oils moved up, while rapeseed oil declined. The USDA July report reflected the impact on US biodiesel and foreign tariffs. The consumption of US biodiesel from soybean oil was increased, soybean crushing was up, exports were down, and inventory was up. The new crop growth was good, and CBOT soybeans were under pressure. In June, Malaysian palm oil production decreased as expected, but the unexpected drop in exports led to a slight inventory build - up. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil production resumed growth in early July, and BMD crude palm oil fluctuated. Operationally, the market traded on the decline in June Malaysian palm oil production last week, and both domestic and foreign palm oils continued their strong trend. However, the increase in July production limited its short - term upside. Seek long - term long opportunities on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section in the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - Last week, the trends of oils and fats diverged. In the producing areas, the MPOB report showed that Malaysian palm oil production and exports in June decreased by 4.48% and 10.52% respectively, and inventory increased by 2.41%. In early July, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35% and exports increased by 5 - 12%. The USDA report adjusted the 25/26 US soybean exports, crushing, and inventory. In China, the weekly trading volume of soybean and palm oils was average. New palm oil purchase contracts were added, and soybean oil inventory reached 102 tons while palm oil inventory stopped increasing. The strategy is to seek long - term long opportunities on dips as the short - term upside of palm oil is limited by the increase in July production [7]. 2. Market Review - Last week, US soybeans tested the 1000 mark, the centers of domestic and foreign palm oils moved up, Dalian soybean oil stopped falling and rebounded, and Zhengzhou rapeseed oil's center of gravity moved down [9]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - USDA July Report: The 25/26 US soybean exports were estimated to be down 70 million bushels, crushing up 50 million bushels, and ending inventory up 15 million bushels. The 25/26 US soybean oil biofuel consumption was 15.5 billion pounds [12][13]. - US Soybean Good - to - Excellent Rate: As of the week ending July 6, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, the same as the previous week [16]. - Brazilian Soybean Premium: Last week, the Brazilian soybean premium rose to a maximum of 155 cents per bushel, hitting an 8 - month high [17]. - June Malaysian Palm Oil Data: In June, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.69 million tons (down 4.48% month - on - month), exports were 1.26 million tons (down 10.52% month - on - month), and inventory was 2.03 million tons (up 2.41% month - on - month). In early July, production increased by 35% and exports changed from - 28% to 12% [12][20]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Policy: Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July to $877.89 per ton. The US threat of a 32% tariff may reduce Indonesian palm oil exports to the US by 15 - 20% [25]. - Indian Palm Oil Import: It was estimated that India's palm oil imports in June increased by 61% to 953,000 tons, reaching an 11 - month high [28]. - Domestic Oilseed Crushing Profit: The price of by - product protein meal rebounded. The spot and futures crushing profits of imported rapeseed reached 200 - 300. The import profit of palm oil was in a slight deficit [31]. - Oil Mill Operating Rate and Inventory: In July, the oil mill crushing operating rate declined, and soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed crushing operating rate stopped falling, and rapeseed inventory decreased. As of early July, soybean oil inventory reached 1.02 million tons, rapeseed oil inventory was 760,000 tons, and palm oil inventory was 520,000 tons [34][39][42]. - Spot Price and Trading Volume of Oils and Fats: Last week, the spot prices of oils and fats diverged. As of July 11, the price of soybean oil rose slightly, palm oil rose, and rapeseed oil fell. The overall trading volume of oils and fats was average [46][49]. 4. Spread Tracking - No specific content provided other than the section title [56]