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中辉期货能化观点-20250714
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-14 09:26
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Expected to oscillate, with a strategy of lightly shorting and buying call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [1][3][5] - LPG: Expected to have a narrow - range oscillation, with a strategy of temporary observation. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [1][6][8] - L: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of buying on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [1][10][11] - PP: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and opportunistically taking a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1][13][14] - PVC: Expected to have a short - term long and long - term short trend, with a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [1][16] - PX: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [1][17][18] - PTA/PR: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [1][19][21] - Ethylene Glycol: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [1][22][24] - Glass: Expected to be long on rebounds, with a strategy of going long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [2][26][27] - Soda Ash: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [2][29][30] - Caustic Soda: Expected to continue to rebound, with a strategy of following the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [2][32][33] - Methanol: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2][34] - Urea: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of lightly going long and looking for shorting opportunities at high levels. UR is expected to be in the range of 1750 - 1800 yuan/ton [2] - Asphalt: Expected to be short on rebounds, with a strategy of lightly shorting. BU is expected to be in the range of 3600 - 3700 yuan/ton [2] - Propylene: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds. Propylene is expected to be in the range of 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: On July 11, WTI rose 2.82%, Brent rose 2.51%, and SC fell 3.11% [3] - Basic Logic: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production increase in August. However, the oil price has strong support due to the consumption peak season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the official OSP in August. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand growth is expected to slow down. US crude oil inventory increased by 710 million barrels to 426 million barrels in the week ending July 4 [4] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly short - position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of 515 - 535 yuan/barrel [5] LPG - Market Performance: On July 11, the PG main contract closed at 4164 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4590 (+0), 4496 (+2), and 4620 (-10) yuan/ton respectively [6] - Basic Logic: Upstream oil prices are the dominant factor. Although oil prices are supported in the short term, LPG supply is relatively sufficient, so it oscillates in a narrow range. PDH device profit remained unchanged at - 384 yuan/ton as of July 11. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory increased [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily observe. PG is expected to be in the range of 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton [8] L - Market Performance: On July 11, the prices of L contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5%. The North China basis was - 101 (month - on - month increase of 28) [10] - Basic Logic: Although the cost support has improved and the agricultural film start - up rate has increased month - on - month, the downstream demand for polyethylene is in the off - season. Some devices are planned for maintenance, and the supply pressure is expected to ease marginally. However, new devices are planned to be put into production in July - August, with a total capacity of 2.05 million tons, so the medium - and long - term outlook is weak [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. L is expected to be in the range of 7250 - 7400 yuan/ton [10] PP - Market Performance: On July 11, the prices of PP contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 7069 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The East China basis was 49 (month - on - month increase of 34), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [13] - Basic Logic: The cost support has improved, and the export profit margin has turned positive. However, the continuous increase in warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space. Device restart plans are increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. New capacity of 2 million tons is planned to be added in the third quarter, so the medium - and long - term supply is under pressure [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds and opportunistically take a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is expected to be in the range of 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [13] PVC - Market Performance: On July 11, the prices of PVC contracts decreased. The main contract closed at 4980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. The Changzhou basis was - 120 (month - on - month increase of 60), and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - Basic Logic: Policy expectations drive the disk to rebound, and the price of动力煤 has risen. However, export orders have weakened month - on - month, the off - season inventory accumulation pressure is obvious, and the social inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The production is expected to increase next week, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Bohua and Wanhua. The domestic demand is in the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term long and long - term short. V is expected to be in the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan/ton [16] PX - Market Performance: On July 11, the spot price of PX in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The PX09 contract closed at 6694 (-88) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 74 (+10) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 426 (+88) yuan/ton [17] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices are operating at a relatively high load. Supply and demand are in a tight balance. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and the basis is strong. It fluctuates with the cost recently [18] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. PX is expected to be in the range of 6690 - 6790 yuan/ton [18] PTA/PR - Market Performance: On July 11, the PTA price in East China was 4715 (-20) yuan/ton. The TA09 contract closed at 4700 (-42) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 38 (+26) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 15 (+22) yuan/ton [19] - Basic Logic: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is abundant. The demand is expected to weaken, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is continuously declining at a high level, and the terminal weaving start - up load continues to decline. The inventory is decreasing, and the basis is weakening [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for shorting opportunities at high levels. TA is expected to be in the range of 4680 - 4770 yuan/ton [21] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On July 11, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4383 (-3) yuan/ton. The EG09 contract closed at 4305 (-20) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was - 26 (+7) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 78 (+17) yuan/ton [22] - Basic Logic: Recently, the number of domestic and overseas device overhauls is less than that of restarts, and the arrival volume is lower than the same period. However, the expected arrival volume is expected to increase, and the supply is expected to be loose. The demand is weakening, and the downstream polyester production reduction load is decreasing, and the terminal weaving start - up continues to decline. The low inventory supports the disk price, and the oil price is oscillating strongly recently [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly go long and look for shorting opportunities at high levels. EG is expected to be in the range of 4280 - 4350 yuan/ton [24] Glass - Market Performance: The spot market quotation increased, and the disk rose slightly. The Hubei basis narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly [26] - Basic Logic: The high - level meeting emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity, and the market expects the technological improvement process of coal - fired production lines to accelerate. The in - production capacity of glass fluctuates slightly at a low level, the production this week has increased slightly, the inventory of glass enterprises has continued to decline, but it is still 10% higher than the same period last year. The fuel price has increased, and the spot quotation has been raised [27] - Strategy Recommendation: Go long based on the daily moving average. FG is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1100 yuan/ton [27] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The spot price of heavy soda ash increased, the disk rose, the main contract basis decreased, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the number of valid forecasts increased [29] - Basic Logic: The high - level meeting mentioned supply - side capacity reduction, which boosted the morale of the industrial chain. However, as the impact of policy speculation weakens, the center of gravity of soda ash has declined, and soda ash manufacturers have accumulated inventory again. The supply of the soda ash market is at a high level, and the inventory of soda ash plants is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds. SA is expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1230 yuan/ton [30] Caustic Soda - Market Performance: The spot price of caustic soda was partially raised, the disk center of gravity moved up, the basis strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [32] - Basic Logic: The supply side has a summer overhaul season inventory reduction expectation. The overall start - up of caustic soda is still at a high level, and there is an expectation of new capacity commissioning. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term. The main downstream alumina start - up has rebounded, but the non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk in May. The cost support has moved down. The liquid caustic soda inventory has decreased [33] - Strategy Recommendation: Follow the upward trend. SH is expected to be in the range of 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton [33] Methanol - Market Performance: On July 11, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2381 (-23) yuan/ton. The main 09 contract of methanol closed at 2370 (-28) yuan/ton. The methanol East China basis was 11 (+13) yuan/ton [34] - Basic Logic: Domestic methanol devices are under overhaul, but the comprehensive start - up load remains relatively high. Overseas methanol devices have recovered to the same - period high. The demand has a negative feedback, the load of coastal MTO external procurement devices has continued to decline, and the start - up load of traditional demand is generally high. The social inventory has increased, and the port basis has weakened [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Short on rebounds. MA is expected to be in the range of 2360 - 2400 yuan/ton [2]