《大美丽法案》：内容、影响与策略启示

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has been implemented rapidly, but its impact on U.S. growth is limited due to significant distribution effects and a tightening fiscal effect from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts. The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][6][29] - The legislative process was expedited due to Trump's strong influence within the Republican Party and effective utilization of legislative rules, allowing the act to be signed into law just 45 days after its introduction [7][10] - The act primarily extends existing tax cuts, leading to an estimated additional $3.85 trillion in fiscal deficits over the next decade, while incremental policies result in a marginal tightening effect, with a projected surplus of $0.49 trillion [12][18][23] Group 2 - The budget and economic effects of the act raise concerns about the sustainability of U.S. public debt, with the potential for a "fiscal cliff" risk emerging around 2028 due to the act's structure of increasing deficits initially [29][32] - The economic impact of the act is assessed as limited, with various institutions estimating its cumulative effect on U.S. GDP over ten years to be around 0.1% to 0.3%, indicating a long-term neutral effect with significant distributional impacts [37][41][43] - Tariff revenues are expected to partially offset the act's budgetary and economic effects, with projections suggesting that tariff income could reduce the fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, potentially covering 68% of the act's total cost [45][50][53] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. Treasury supply shocks post-implementation of the act are analyzed across three time dimensions, indicating that the immediate impact on market liquidity and long-term yield premiums is manageable [54][56] - The act raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, allowing the Treasury to issue additional bonds, which may lead to short-term liquidity tightening but is expected to be controlled in the third quarter of the year [56][58] - The long-term trajectory of U.S. debt sustainability remains a challenge, with the act's passage indicating a strong path dependency on debt expansion, suggesting that long-term Treasury yields may face upward pressure [60]