油脂内部分化，棕榈油表现强势

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 113 to close at 4,175 ringgit/ton, a 2.78% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 210 to close at 8,682 yuan/ton, a 2.48% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 42 to close at 7,986 yuan/ton, a 0.53% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 168 to close at 9,439 yuan/ton, a 1.75% decrease; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.97 to close at 53.57 cents/pound, a 1.78% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 36.1 to close at 683 Canadian dollars/ton, a 5.02% decrease [4][6]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and closed higher, but there was internal differentiation. Palm oil was the strongest. Although the MPOB report showed that export demand was lower than expected, domestic consumption increased significantly, and inventory continued to rise, which was slightly bearish overall, the export data in July showed a month - on - month increase. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, and there is an expectation of a B50 policy in the future. Coupled with the boost from the recovery of the domestic commodity market, palm oil had a large increase. The improvement of precipitation expectations in the Canadian canola - producing areas and the expectation of EU production recovery led to a decline in canola, dragging down domestic rapeseed oil. Although US soybean oil was supported by the expectation of the biodiesel policy, the decline of US soybeans during the week dragged it down [4][7]. - Macroscopically, the US unilaterally issued a tax - levying letter, with a compressed negotiation time, and the process is expected to be slow. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's CPI data. Fundamentally, although the June MPOB report was slightly bearish, the recent strengthening of oil prices, the good export data in July, the implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy increasing biodiesel consumption, and the expectation of B50 implementation next year supported the strong performance of palm oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][9]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the trading data of various contracts from July 4th to July 11th, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the futures spreads between soybean and palm oil, rapeseed and palm oil, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector showed internal differentiation. Palm oil was strong due to factors such as export data improvement, policy support, and market sentiment. Rapeseed oil was weak because of the expected improvement in Canadian canola production and EU production recovery. US soybean oil was affected by the decline of US soybeans despite biodiesel policy expectations [7]. - The June MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was 2.031 million tons, a 2.41% month - on - month increase; production was 1.692 million tons, a 4.48% month - on - month decrease; export volume was 1.259 million tons, a 10.52% month - on - month decrease; and consumption was 455,000 tons, a 43.79% month - on - month increase [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 10, 2025, the yield of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production decreased by 35.28%. Different shipping survey agencies had different data on Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10, 2025, with ITS showing a 5.32% increase, AmSpec showing an 11.95% increase, and SGS showing a 28.14% decrease [7][8]. - As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.254 million tons, an increase of 34,400 tons from the previous week and 371,700 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0197 million tons, an increase of 64,500 tons from the previous week and 1,100 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 535,100 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 62,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 699,600 tons, a decrease of 27,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 308,600 tons from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 12,920 tons, compared with 6,440 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 370 tons, compared with 486 tons in the previous week [8]. Industry News - An Indian agricultural minister called on the central government to modify the palm oil import policy, increase the import tariff to 44%, and set a minimum guaranteed price of 25,000 rupees per ton to protect domestic oil palm farmers [10]. - The Malaysian Minister of Plantation Industries said that the demand for Malaysian palm oil products in industrial applications, especially in food processing in sub - Saharan Africa, is increasing. Exports to North Africa increased by 63.5% in 2024, and exports to sub - Saharan Africa increased by 26% year - on - year in the first five months of 2025 [10]. - BMI expects that Malaysia's palm oil production will partially recover in the 2025/26 fiscal year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons, but industrial demand may slow down due to factors such as the slow progress of biodiesel targets and stricter restrictions on waste cooking oil trade [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oils, and the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils [12 - 47].