现阶段外部宏观环境趋暖，商品市场价格小幅抬升，短期棉价或延续偏强走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The external macro - environment is warming up, and the commodity market price has risen slightly. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is likely to continue its strong - oscillating trend in the short term. The cotton growth in Xinjiang is better than last year, and the inventory is tight, which supports the price. Also, there are positive policy expectations in the domestic market [2][3][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets 3.1.1 Weekly Data Overview - As of July 11, the CRB commodity price index rose to 303.52 points, up 3.69 points (1.23%) from July 4. Gold rose to $3370.3 per ounce, up $23.8, and crude oil rose to $68.75 per barrel, up $2.25. However, the prices of agricultural products such as US soybeans and corn declined. ICE cotton futures' December contract decreased to 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%). The domestic cotton spot and futures prices increased slightly, but the spot trading was mostly sluggish [10] - The main contract of Zhengmian 09 closed at 13,885 yuan per ton on July 11, up 105 yuan from July 4, and the position increased by 9,428 lots to 556,000 lots [11] - The CNF quotes of imported cotton in major ports decreased. For example, the price of US E/MOTM decreased by 0.8 cents per pound, and the 1% customs - cleared price decreased by 139 yuan per ton [9] 3.2 Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market 3.2.1 Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends - On July 11, compared with July 4, the price trends of raw materials were mixed. The prices of polyester staple fiber and short - fiber futures decreased, while the prices of CCI3128 cotton and Zhengmian futures increased [15] 3.2.2 Cotton Yarn Price Trends - Except for T32S, the prices of domestic yarns increased. The prices of all imported yarns and imported cotton yarns in RMB terms also increased. The price difference between domestic and imported yarns and the price difference between domestic and imported cotton both expanded [18][20][22][24] 3.2.3 Comparison of Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices with International Cotton Price Index (Tax - Included) - On July 11, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,266 yuan per ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty decreased, and the difference between Zhengmian and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty also decreased [27] 3.3 Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengmian Market 3.3.1 Zhengmian Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - As of July 11, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengmian were 9,850 lots (424,000 tons), and the valid forecasts were 234 lots (10,000 tons). The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 434,000 tons, down from 444,000 tons on July 4 [31] 3.3.2 Analysis of Zhengmian Futures - Spot Price Difference - On July 11, the difference between Zhengmian futures price and CCI3128B index was - 1,381 yuan per ton, and the difference expanded compared with July 4 [34] 3.3.3 Zhengmian Price Analysis - In terms of macro - environment, the US imposed new tariffs on some countries, and the Sino - US 10% reciprocal tariffs are due on August 12. Domestically, there are policies to promote the construction of a unified market and regulate the photovoltaic industry, and some commodity prices are strong [35] - In terms of supply, the national commercial cotton inventory at the end of June was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 18.18% from the previous month and 13.55% lower than the same period last year. The inventory depletion is fast, and the spot basis quotation of Xinjiang cotton is strong [36] - In terms of demand, due to the rising raw material costs, some spinning mills raised their quotes, but the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction price was flat or slightly increased. The profit of spinning mills was poor, with inland mills losing nearly 1,000 yuan per ton and Xinjiang mills at the break - even point [36] - Technically, the MACD red column of Zhengmian's main contract was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA were about to form a golden cross, and the KDJ was also about to form a golden cross [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: International Market Analysis 3.4.1 US Cotton Export Dynamics - From June 27 to July 3, the net signing of US 2024/25 - year land cotton was 17,010 tons, a significant increase from the previous week. The shipment of land cotton was 54,635 tons, a 6% decrease from the previous week. The net signing and shipment of Pima cotton also increased. As of July 3, 2025, the cumulative net signing of US 2024/25 - year cotton exports reached 110.98% of the annual expected export volume, and the shipment rate was 88.48% [42] - As of June 24, the CFTC fund's net long position increased by 4,789 lots compared with the previous week [44] 3.4.2 ICE Cotton Futures Analysis - On July 11, the ICE cotton futures' December contract was 67.42 cents per pound, down 1.01 cents (1.48%) from July 4. Technically, the MACD green column was expanding, and the DIFF and DEA formed a death cross, and the KDJ also formed a death cross [45] 3.5 Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions - The price of Zhengmian increased slightly this week. The external macro - environment is favorable for commodity prices, and the change of Sino - US tariffs should be monitored [47] - The commercial inventory has reached a seven - year low, and the supply will be tight before the new cotton harvest. Downstream spinning mills can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of cotton purchase [47]